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July 17 – Stock mentions: SPY, SMH, NFLX, AMD, BAC, AMZN, SQ
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own NFLX
US Markets
- S&P 500 Futures +3.5 points
- US 10 Year 2.1%
- Dollar Index 97.35
- VIX 12.69
- Oil $58.05
International Markets
- Shanghai Composite -0.2%
- Hong Kong HSI -0.09%
- KOSPI -0.91%
- Nikkei -0.31%
- Germany DAX +0.03%
- UK FTSE -0.06%
US Trading for July 17
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 is pointing to a slightly higher opening on July 17. Not much has changed since the last time I checked in with you. We are pretty close to finding out if the index is going to reverse lower, potentially as early as today. Should it break down, the first level of support would come at 2,975. Meanwhile, should it continue to rise, the next level of resistance comes at around 3,030.
The wedge seems like it is still middle innings, so I think we may be able to squeeze out some higher prices before a mild retracement. But what happens at support at 3,000 will tell us a lot on July 17. Premium content: Second Quarter Mott Capital Investor Letter
Semis (SMH)
ASML Holdings is rising today by over 5% after reporting better than expected earnings. It should help to lift the Semis sector. The SMH is testing resistance today at $114.60.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix will report results today after the close. The options that expire this Friday suggesting the stock rise or fall by 7% following the results. It places the stock in a trading range between $342 and $393.
For now, the stock has held support at $362, and I have been looking for the stock to rise to $405. I do think that the company will report better than expected subscriber net additions, and give strong guidance. I’m fearful that it may not be enough for the stock to rise, as investors have started focusing more on Free Cash Flow.
However, my hunch given the price hikes, we see better than expected revenue and EPS. We’ll see.
AMD (AMD)
AMD has that nice rising triangle, and it would suggest we see that rise above $34.50, potentially today.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon is getting ready to make it next move up as the wedge contracts. The next level of resistance is likely around $2,060.
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[youtube-feed feed=7]Bank of America (BAC)
The market at this point seems less than impressed with Bank of America’s earnings results. Shares could drop to $28.
Square (SQ)
I’m torn some on Square; it isn’t clear to me yet what happens next. That’s because the chart is creating an ascending triangle. However, there is a risk that the stock first falls to the uptrend at roughly $78 first. We will need to continue to watch closely. However, a break out above $83 sends the stock to $92.
Have a great day!
-Mike
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.