STOCKS – AMD, NVDA, AMZN, NFLX, SQ
MACRO – SPY
- Monster Themes To Watch For Week of 11.2.20
- De-Risking Friday
- Big Options Bets Going On
- MCM Thematic Growth 3Q’20 Investor Letter
- Are Yields Going To Explode Higher?
- Double Top Alert -Midday
It is going to a monster week for several reasons, with Tuesday the cornerstone of a potentially major shift for the market. The polls have tightened dramatically, and I predict Trump shocks the world for a second time, beating Joe Biden in a stunning upset.
I think that results in a post-election sell-off, not because the market is upset Trump won, but because it puts the final nail in the coffin of a massive stimulus deal worth trillions upon trillions of dollars. Do we need another stimulus deal? Absolutely! Do we need a $4,$5,$6, or $7 trillion stimulus deal? No.
Additionally, I think it will lead to the breakdown in talks between Pelosi and Trump for the stimulus. Nothing gets done until January or until the market breaks them. (Premium content – Who I Think Will Win The Election, And What It Means For The Market 10.27.20)
If that wasn’t enough we get the ISM Manufacturing report on Monday, ADP, and Service ISM on Wednesday, the BLS Jobs report on Friday.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The market setup doesn’t look strong, and my messaging had been that I was bullish up until the election. Well, that is over. It ended last week. Now, the S&P 500 is on the precipice, sitting just above one of the most important support levels I have seen in some time, which comes in the range of 3,185 to 3,200. We have been talking about this all week in the subscriber area. A close below this region and a follow-through confirmation sets up what could be a very sharp decline from this dreaded bearish double top pattern. (Premium content Double Top Alert -Midday 10.28.20)
AMD is sitting on the neckline of a massive head and shoulders pattern, along with an RSI that is still trending lower. Add to that the very dilutive deal to buy Xilinx, and I wonder how this stock doesn’t go lower. You have to feel bad for Xilinx shareholders because its stock will fall under the collapsing weight of AMD.
Nvidia broke it’s a multi-month uptrend, and now the RSI is trending lower, and suddenly there has been a major uptick in volume, suggesting more sellers are moving into the name. The stock is likely heading back to $460.
Amazon also has an RSI trending lower and volume exploding higher after it broke support at $3,100 and is likely heading back to $2,870.
Square also broke its multi-month uptrend, with an RSI heading lower and volume exploding ahead of results. A break of $149 sets up a drop back to $120.
Netflix is sitting on the cusp of a break down with a drop below $470, sending the shares to $405.
Anyway, have a great week!
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