This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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APRIL 26, 2020
STOCKS – AMZN, GOOGL, FB, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, QCOM
MACRO – SPY
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL
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It will be a potentially significant week for stocks with an FOMC meeting on Wednesday, along with first quarter GDP, and the ISM manufacturing report on Friday. Then through earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon, in, and it could lead to a significant shift for stock prices.
MIKE’S READING THE MARKETS PREMIUM CONTENT –
- Massive Shift On The Horizon
- Earnings Are Deteriorating, Market Is Not Cheap
- Evolution Of Earnings
- Earnings And Techincals All Trending Lower
S&P 500 (SPY)
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Taking another look at the S&P 500 has led me to this rising wedge pattern that seems to be a little more apparent after this week’s trading action. The S&P 500 was down about 1.3% this past week and has virtually gone nowhere since April 9 at this point, so one hasn’t “missed” much of anything. However, I think that is about to start changing. The RSI is flattening out, and even showing signs of weakening. Meanwhile, a rising wedge pattern is bearish and suggests a pretty sizeable decline may soon be coming for the S&P 500, back to gap a fill around 2470.
I think Alphabet is likely to miss earnings estimates this quarter, as it “hedge fund/trading” unit likely underperforms and takes some mark-to-market losses in the first quarter. As a result, the stock sinks to around $1,150, because investors only look at the EPS, and not what goes into the EPS.
Meanwhile, Apple is likely to give lackluster fiscal third quarter guidance as iPhone and wearable sales are very weak, and service revenue can’t make up for that slowdown. I think Apple drops back to $235.
Amazon is likely to post a steady revenue beat but will miss on the bottom line and chooses to spend on the future. Meanwhile, second-quarter guidance will be conservative, and with the stock up around 30% this year, it pulls back to 2,180.
Microsoft will deliver strong cloud and office growth. But its hardware business will take a hit, and that likely disappoints the street with the stock pulling back to around $162.
Elon Musk will reaffirm Tesla’s guidance of comfortably exceeding 500,000 units deliveries in 2020, and the stock will climb to around $850.
Facebook will likely see weaker revenue and rising cost, and the market won’t like that one bit, and I think the stock is likely to drop to around $166.
With iPhone sales slipping, Qualcomm will slip and fill the gap at $65, as I noted in this premium story this week. Premium content – Bearish BettingContinues In Qualcomm
Have a good Sunday and good luck this week!
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