This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MAY 10, 2020
STOCKS – AMGN, AAPL, AMZN, FB, UBER, LLY, JD
LONG-TERM MARKET TRENDS – CAUTION
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
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Economic news will be less prominent this week, but we will see a big options expiration on Friday. The most significant open interest level on the board is at 3,000, and one has to think that level may act as a magnet for the market, pulling the S&P 500 higher this week towards that strike price.
S&P 500 (SPY)
There is a path for the index to reach 3,000 this week with a gap to fill at that level. But first, the index needs to get over resistance at 2,960, which does seem possible given that the relative strength index is still 58.
If the index is going to make that run higher, it is going to need Amazon to be one of those stocks to help push it there. The stock has been holding an uptrend for the past two weeks, with a healthy level of resistance around 2,440. There is a bearish divergence forming with the RSI, which suggests the stock is likely to drift lower longer-term. However, the stock may just have enough juice left to keep it moving higher for one more week.
Apple may still have a little upside left too, but it is running short on room. The big questions will be what happens to the stock after it fills the gap at $311. Meanwhile, the stocks RSI is approaching 70, and overbought levels.
Uber is facing a severe level of resistance at $33, and after last week’s horrible results, I find it hard to believe that this one can continue to rise. I’m guessing it to comes back to $30.50.
Facebook has filled a gap too, and now its RSI is overbought with a reading of over 70. Not a good sign, as it means that stock is likely running out of steam, and reverse lower back to $191.
JD.com is facing a bearish divergence on the RSI, and that means the stock may be topping out and on a path back to $42.80.
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly may be forming a head and shoulders pattern, and the stock needs to fall below $152 to confirm the potentially significant reversal lower. The RSI is already telling you the stock is losing momentum.
Amgen is also facing the same pattern as Lilly, with a drop below $224, confirming the reversal pattern.
Have a great Sunday, and hope all you moms have a great Mother’s Day
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.