This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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September 4, 2020
STOCKS – AAPL, AMD, NVDA, TWLO, DOCU, SQ, ZM
Macro – QQQ, SPY
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – NOW WITH A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL
- A Drop To 2860 On The S&P 500 Is A Real Possibility
- AMD May Fall 11% More
- Stock Market Comes To Critical Moment
- Stocks Set To Sell-Off Morning Commentary
- The NASDAQ Just Hit That Level Again – Midday
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
Stocks are down today ahead of the big jobs report today, with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trading down about ten bps, and the Qs trading down about 1.3%. The sharp move lower in the US markets were not reflected overnight in Asia, with South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan down just a little more than 1%. Meanwhile, Germany is down about 70 bps and the UK hovering around flat.
The bad news is the job report may not even matter, even if it is good. Estimates are for 1.4 jobs created.
The selling pressure in technology is back at the moment, with the XLK technology ETF down about 1.8%, and many of the big technology names are trading lower.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 futures are flirting with a significant uptrend, which has extended higher since early April. Again, I can’t emphasize enough how important it is that this uptrend hold, with a meaningful close below that trend line, likely signaling something worse to come. The 200-day moving average rests about 10% below the futures current level.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
The Qs have further to fall before hitting the uptrend, around $278.
The 200 day-moving average in the Qs is nearly 20% lower. Again, these April trend lines must hold. The significant technology reversal isn’t a surprise as the technical told us this would happen as did the options markets last week. – (Mike’s premium content – A Monster Hedge Against Several Technology Winners)
Square is already trading over 4% lower today, and it needs to find and hold a trend line around $139.
AMD is also down around 4% this morning, and it needs to hold support at $78; otherwise, it can drop to approximately $71.75. I noted yesterday morning, before the big sell-off, some bearish betting and an 11% drop in the stock was likely, but that was when the stock trading around $87. A drop to $72 is an additional 10% on top of the 11% I noted. (Mike’s Premium content – AMD May Fall 11% More)
Nvidia is also falling by 5% today, and it could fall to a range of $465 to $470 before finding support.
Zoom’s likely to fill that gap down around the $325 level. I know it had a great quarter, but at whatever it ridiculous valuation is already, don’t you think much of that future growth has already been priced in?
If Apple breaks $115 today, it could be heading to $109. Apple could quickly go back to $100 and still be at a pre-split $400.
Docusign maybe the most crucial stock to watch because they had blowout results, and the stock is trading down 7% already. Yikes! If this stock gets crushed, it means the frenzy in the group is over. $188 could be an easy target.
Twilio needs to hold $235, or else $218 is next, followed by $180.
Have a good one, and good luck!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.