This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWNS SHARES OF NETFLIX AND APPLE
The week of December 17 will be all about the FOMC meeting which will close on December 19, with an interest rate decision, followed by a press conference. The odds for a Fed rate hike is now 76% according to CME Group. It is widely expected that the Fed will raise rates.
The most important part of the meeting to follow shall be the commentary and the press conference, I would expect a much more dovish FOMC following this meeting. I would become very fearful if a dovish message not be conveyed to the market.
There will be a number of important results this week with Oracle, Micron, FedEx, and Nike. The most important for global trade shall be Micron, FedEx, and Nike.
Micron shall be the key as I noted yesterday as it can give some color about tariff impacts. Nike should give us an idea of how business in China is going, and FedEx can serve as a broad measure of economic health. These are the most important earnings to watch and more critical is the commentary, keying in on the conference calls.
Additionally, investors will continue to worry about the negative headlines surrounding President Trump and the investigation, which will likely only get more intense this year now that Democrats now control the House. Additionally, trade tensions worries will continue to be on investors mind.
The WSJ had a great article that came out around midnight last night, which I read at the time on Apple. It is highly worth reading, and it supports my viewpoint on Apple. The story suggests that Apple is focusing less on iPhone unit sales and instead focusing on selling fewer phones at higher prices and moving more into services.
What the story highlights to me is the future direction for Apple. I also believe that once 5G becomes more widely available, Apple will launch some form of a 5G TV or home console that will act as your service hub for your entertainment. Which will have no wires, and connect to your devices wirelessly. Think about a 60-inch version of your iPad.
$164 continues to be support for Apple. My expectation is that level remains firm.
Amazon fell below $1,620 this past week, and that is not encouraging. If the stock falls below $1,550, I will become fearful that we shall retest the test the recent lows around $1450.
Facebook will continue to be focus stock, and if it can manage to rise above $149 this week, then the next level to watch is $158. Support will continue to stay at $142
Google trends is suggesting that Netflix subscription search trends are cooling some of the past few days. Which is not a good sign considering the company gave such big subscriber guidance last quarter.
We shall have to see what happens in the last days of the year. Last year we saw a surge the week of Christmas. The significant level for the stock support will continue to be its long-term uptrend line around $257.
Nvidia is once again potentially on its way to around $139.
As noted above Micron reports results this week and the chart looks terrible. If the stock falls below $34, then $32.50 is on the way. More on Micron later this week.
Nike needs to hold support at $72, or it looks like it may be on its way to $69.60.
Boeing is nearing long-term support, and should it fall below $312; it is likely to drop to around $295.
Bank of America (BAC)
Bank of America may be on its way to $22.90.
Good Luck this week!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
December 17, apple, fed, fomc, amazon, netflix, boeing, nvidia, micron