This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 2,366 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
June 28, 2020
STOCKS – MU, WDC, FB, AMZN, ZM, DIS, T
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
Mike Reading The Markets Premium Content – $35/Month or $300/Year
- THE WEEK OF JUNE 29 WILL BE CHALLENGING
- Earnings Trends For June 27
- Facebook Adding Fuel To Fire – Midday
- Disney Shares May Plunge By Up To 14%
- Winds Are Swirling
- Stock Testing Critical Resistance
- Stocks Face A Challenging And Important Day – Morning
- Betting On A 10% Drop In AT&T
- Nasdaq 100 May See A Sharp Reversal Short-Term
- Betting Indicates Facebook Falls
- The New Week Faces Headwinds – Morning
It will be a holiday-shortened trading week with the markets closed on July 3 in observance of the July 4 holiday. It means we will get plenty of economic data in just four days, with the ADP job report, ISM manufacturing report on Wednesday, and the BLS job report on Thursday. These are likely to be market-moving events, so they will all be essential. Premium content – THE WEEK OF JUNE 29 WILL BE CHALLENGING
S&P 500 (SPY)
I took another look at the S&P 500 from a fresh viewpoint, and what stands out pretty clearly is the descending triangle pattern. The pattern is bearish, and based on the height of the triangle, could be suggesting a decline of about 9% from where the index closed on Friday. It results in a drop to around 2,720, and to an essential level of support that dates back to April 21.
Is that likely to happen all this week, well let’s hope not? Sharp and sudden moves are never good. The slower, the better.
A break in the S&P 500 futures on Sunday night into Monday below 2980 certainly gets us moving in that downward direction. Based on where the IG weekend Dow is trading, which is down 80 bps, we are likely to open right on that support level. No surprise, I guess.
Micron reports on Monday after the close, they already preannounced the quarter, so there should be no real surprise there. The stock hasn’t even reacted favorably. The only place the company could surprise is on how they see the rest of the year going. DRAM and NAND prices have been falling since the end of April, and that can’t bode well for guidance going forward and is likely to pressure margins lower. It likely means a disappointing outlook and a stock that goes to $45.50.
Western Digital (WDC)
The pattern in Western Digital also confirms this bearish outlook, and Western Digital is likely heading lower, too, towards $35.50.
Facebook was smashed last week, and it is likely to continue this week. I have been seeing bearish betting in this stock for two weeks in a row and noted it in a free story, and in this premium story for subscribers, Betting Indicates Facebook Falls on June 22. If the stock falls below $213, there is a good chance it declines to $203.
I saw a lot of bearish betting June 24th on AT&T, and that likely means the stocks declines have only begun. The shares are now resting on an uptrend and support at $28.90. A break of support sends shares lower to $27.35. Premium content – Betting On A 10% Drop In AT&T
There was a lot bearish betting for Disney that I noted on Friday, indicating shares fall sharply. There isn’t a company that is likely getting hurt more than Disney from the pandemic. Nearly every aspect of there business is under attack, and there is no indication when this turns for the better. I think the stock continues lower with a break below $109, pushing shares to $99. Premium content – Disney Shares May Plunge By Up To 14%
Zoom has a large rising wedge pattern and bearish divergence in the RSI; it all indicates one thing, lower prices. The stock is likely to drop back to support around $220 and, more likely than not, $200.
Amazon has the same thing going on, and that isn’t good for the stock either. I also noted in a free story this past week, that the stock is trading at a price to sales ratio that usually doesn’t lead to good outcomes. Watch for $2100.
If Amazon and Facebook crack this week, it isn’t likely a good sign for the NASDAQ 100 either. The NASDAQ 100 hasn’t been this overvalued relative to the S&P 500, since, well, you know…That ain’t good. Free story – Dot Com Deja-Vu? The NASDAQ Hasn’t Been This Overvalued In 20 Years
Have a great Sunday-
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.