This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 2,508 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
9 Monster Stock Predictions For The Week of October 22
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF GOOGL, CELG
Are you ready for another week of fun-filled stock market madness! Well, folks, it is show time this week. The calendar for the week of October 22 is full. We get big earnings, GDP results, PMI’s, the ECB rate decisions, Japanese inflation, and whatever it is China feels like doing with its stock and currency markets.
Earnings will be plentiful, but the big ones will be Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and AMD.
It means there will be plenty of moving parts in the markets. Economic data and the ECB pushing and pulling on rates and currencies; while earnings drive equities. But make no mistake each market is tied together, and that means what happens in one market affect the other.
The good news is that with earnings coming to an end within the next week or two. It should allow for the resumption of corporate buybacks which will add another source of liquidity back into the stock market.
S&P 500 (SP500, SPX)
As I have noted in the past as long as the S&P 500 can stay above 2,680, then I think we will be ok. But should the index fall below 2,670 then I fear a retest of the February lows of around 2,550 comes into play. So let us hope that does not happen.
Amazon hasn’t performed that well after it has reported earnings the last two quarters. Remember it was in April that shares popped higher following its results rising to their earlier highs only to consolidate for a few weeks time. After the company reported results in July, they were also range bound for a few weeks. If Netflix is any indication, then unless Amazon does something unusual the stock is likely not to have a significant rise.
The stock needs to get over $1,840 to have a fighting chance to climb higher. Momentum is coming out of this name as noted by the RSI. That has me a bit concerned. Additionally, Amazon has never been a company that cares about beating or missing analysts earnings estimates, which is another wild card for the stock.
Alphabet is another stock that has traded very poorly. I’m not as concerned with Alphabet as I am with Amazon. But that is because Alphabet’s stock has not performed nearly as well this year. Until proven otherwise I think Alphabet’s upside is to around $1,172 with a downside to approximately $1,000.
It had looked like Microsoft would resume trading in its channel, but now even that doesn’t look so certain. Support is around $102.50.
I think AMD is going even lower. I will be nice and say I think it is going to $20. Although I think that may be even too generous for the stock and likely it deserves to trade much lower than that.
It would be nice to think that Intel was finally about to turn higher. All the signs are there to suggests it may; it just hasn’t happened yet. The RSI is starting to rise, and that may be a positive sign. For now, the stock price needs to rise above $46, before we think about the stock rising beyond that.
The same can be said for Gilead with an RSI that starting to rise. But again the stock price struggles.
Celgene is the same thing as Gilead. The RSI is trending the right way, which is higher, but the price is just struggling every time it gets in the mid-90’s.
If biotech and semis stocks can get their acts together, it would surely be a big positive for the broader equity market.
Good Luck this week
stocks, October 22, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, stock market
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.