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Stocks finished the day higher, reclaiming some of their losses on January 20, with the S&P 500 hitting the 78.6% retracement level of its Friday closing price. Well, there is not much to say at this point other than the market bounced from yesterday. It is hard to say more than that at this point.
Much of what we saw likely stemmed from hedges unwinding as fears over Greenland subsided. Meanwhile, the VIX 1Day closed at 12, so there isn’t much vol to crush at the open tomorrow, even following the PCE report.
The only problem is whether Greenland was the true cause of the market decline on Monday; not doubt it played a role, but the bigger question is how much the sell-off in JGBs the night before had to do with it. 10-Yr JGB rates fell by 8 bps in Japan on Wednesday, but as far as I know, nothing really changed, aside from some nervousness from government officials. The true test will come when the BOJ meeting is concluded on Friday.
I guess we can see what tomorrow brings. I don’t have much more at this point.
Mike
Glossary by ChatGPT
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78.6% Retracement Level – A Fibonacci-based technical level often used to identify potential support or resistance after a market move.
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Hedge Unwinding – The process of closing protective positions, which can temporarily boost asset prices.
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JGBs (Japanese Government Bonds) – Sovereign debt securities issued by the Japanese government.
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PCE Report – A U.S. economic release measuring personal consumption expenditures, closely watched as an inflation gauge by policymakers.
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VIX 1Day – A short-term volatility index reflecting expected market volatility over the next trading day.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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