This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF AAPL, ACAD, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA
S&P 500 (SPX, SP500)
We got our rise to 2,795 we were looking for on the S&P 500, and it continued higher on to 2,813. The next level of resistance to watch for on the index is 2820. Clearly, the market was pleased with the results of the election.
I have put in a new uptrend for the S&P 500, and I think it should offer a good deal of support. The big test will come tomorrow with the FOMC rate decision and the commentary to follow about a December rate hike. Remember most of stock market drama started on October 3 when Fed Chair Powell made some commentary around raising rates to “neutral,” whatever neutral suppose to mean.
Here is the thing, there are clear signs from companies reporting results that tariffs and trade tensions are having an impact on global economic growth. There is no denying that. But the question here is what the Fed does about it? Do they blindly keep raising rates despite the warning sign of a potential economic slowdown? Or do they slow the pace of hikes down to see if the trade dispute settle themselves, and economic growth picks up?
A Fed that is on the path to raising rates blindly is a threat to the stock market and the broader economy. Again, you can argue about rising wages, but commodity prices speak of a very differing story. I would also say that 3% wage growth is still pretty pathetic, from a historical perspective.
Anyway. Let’s move on to some other stuff.
Premium Content: Stocks Can Continue To Climb
Well, it looks like we nailed Amazon, again. Today’s close was at $1755. The RSI would suggest there is more room to rise here; I think it moves up to $1840.
Netflix is also closing in on $332, and an increase above that send the stock on towards $342.
I’m looking for Alphabet to rise to $1172.
For Tesla, I am still targeting $362, and it is growing closer.
Qualcomm just gave some dismal revenue guidance. This why I hate companies that do these significant share buybacks. It just makes it look things are improving on the earnings side, and gives it the illusion of a low “PE.” But for Qualcomm, things continue to get worse. I think a drop below $59 sends the stock back to $50.
Apple closed right around support at $209.50. Is the buyer back? Seems like it. $217.50 may be on the way.
The only reason I thought Acadia might have been down today was the lack of volume growth for Nuplazid sales. Also, that cash pile is starting to get low, and they have a lot of trials they plan to run. Otherwise, I have no idea why this stock was down today. The shares have been stuck in this range now for some time.
Intel is getting close to breaking above $49 and may be on its way to $51.
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S&P 500, SP500, amazon, apple, netflix, alphabet, qualcomm,