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Bank Stocks May See More Trouble As Inflation and Yields Fall
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF NFLX
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It will be another roller coaster week for stocks as investors now have earnings to digest and there will be no shortage of those. Netflix will be the headliner this week, and there is no doubting that strong results out of Netflix may get the bulls juices flowing again. But for Netflix, it may come down to subscriber growth which is the metric that matters most. After a disappointing second quarter, the company will need to deliver better than expected third-quarter subscriber growth. The results come Tuesday at the close of trading.
Yields
None of that may matter if the bond yields continue to climb, and as we have talked about the 10-year may be the most crucial gauge. Should the yield on the 10yr fall below 3.12% it may set up a move sharply lower back to the 3% range perhaps even the 2.90’s.
Inflation
The inflation outlook continues to look tame when considering the movement in some essential commodities.
Copper
Copper, a core base metal and gauge for economic growth, has performed poorly in recent months.
Platinum
Platinum, an essential metal used in catalytic converters in the auto industry, is trading at prices not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
Iron-ore
Iron-ore another key metal used in construction has seen its price continue to slide.
PPI & CPI
The producer price index y/y growth has now turned lower and is showing signs of disinflation.
CPI has as well.
It would all seem to suggest that inflation rates are likely to stay low with a risk of disinflation -slowing inflation. If that is the case, it poses a serious problem should the Fed continue to raise rates. It seems more likely to me that yields on the long-end of the curve will continue to sink over the longer-term, not rise. That will further pressure spreads on yields and potentially invert the yield curve. That would obviously be a horrible scenario of the banks.
BANKS
The way the bank stocks are now trading it would seem that investors may be thinking the same. It was the higher interest rate story that helped to push the bank stocks up in the post-election run-up in late 2016. Now it seems to be going the other way.
Back tomorrow with the look ahead for the week.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
inflation, yields, rates, banks, netflix, cpi, ppi
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.