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Bitcoin, AMD, Nvidia, Biotech, Could Apple iPhone Worries Be Overblown

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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Bitcoin, AMD, Nvidia, Biotech, Could Apple iPhone Worries Be Overblown

It is a new year, and with that everything gets reset back to zero, but other than not much else should change when trading opens again on January 2.


It seems likely Bitcoin will continue its decline as well. In an Investopedia article on December 27, I wrote that Bitcoin could fall by as much as 50 percent, from its price of about 15,000, taking the cryptocurrency to nearly 7,700. With Bitcoin now is trading around 13,300, it seems there is still more downside risk.

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The Chart below shows how Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still far from oversold levels. The RSI is now around 46 and would need to fall below 30 before it was oversold. Meanwhile, the next significant level of resistance comes at roughly 11,800, and from there it is a long way down to around 7,700.

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btc by Scorpio244 on

Nvidia and AMD Fallout

Nvidia and AMD will sometimes see their stock price get pushed around by the rise and fall of Bitcoin. It doesn’t matter whether GPU’s from AMD or Nvidia get used to mine Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, they are guilty by association because most investors aren’t going to have that type technical sophistication, so just keep that mind. y

In reality, as I have written about in the past, Nvidia’s total revenue from cryptocurrency mining was about 2 percent in the latest quarter, while AMD has started downplaying cryptocurrency trends in its business as well. In fact, AMD was down nearly 10 percent in 2017; the stock market never gave AMD any credit for Bitcoin when it was rising, so why should it when Bitcoin is falling.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts



Tesla Model 3’s are getting delivered, and you can now even buy one on eBay! In fact, you can also buy one now for $77,000! Or this one for $85,000!


Remember the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference kicks-off on January 8, and there usually plenty of big announcements that come out of this conference, with more than 400 companies presenting. So make sure you are paying attention.

The Biotech ETF ($IBB) managed to stay in the zone of support, between $106.50 and $107. The biotech stocks should be able to hold this area of support and rally off it come next week.

IBB by Scorpio244 on


Celgene has been able to test support now on a few occasions at $102.5, and to this point has held.

celg by Scorpio244 on


Biogen has been able to hold support at $319.

biib by Scorpio244 on


Gilead is the real question mark in the group. After looking like it made a significant multi-year breakout back in July, and the big Kite acquisition in late summer, the stock has struggled. It seems to have found two level of support around $71.75.

gild by Scorpio244 on

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The focus has come back to Apple and the supply chain again, as investors once again worry about iPhone demand. It is ridiculous that these rumors come up so often. This is what the third or fourth time now? Now the rumors are pointing 30 million units for the first quarter. I have no clue, what this number will be, but we can make an educated guess about how Apple may fare.

Broadcom is a major supplier to Apple and it reported it fiscal fourth quarter 2017 results back on December 6, for the period ended October 29, 2017. The company provided guidance for the fiscal first quarter of 2018, ending on February 4. The company gave strong guidance of $5.3 billion at the mid-point, about 11 percent higher than previous estimates.

AVGO Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter Chart

AVGO Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts

In its 10-K, Broadcom said it believes that Apple accounted for more than 20 percent of revenue in 2017, up from 15 percent in 2016.

Broadcom’s Fiscal First quarter ends on February 4, 2018, running through nearly the middle of the calendar first quarter. If Apple iPhone shipments in the first quarter are to drop from say 50 million units to 30 million units, why would Broadcom issues such strong guidance? Will there be a huge drop off in business in the second half of February and March for Apple? Perhaps. But it is just one other way to assess the situation and think outside of the box and think about all the possibilities.

Good Luck!

On-Demand Premium Content

In my premium video, I run through how the different sectors set up and where the ETF’s might rise or fall too. The video is about nine minutes long and I run through many charts, pulling a lot of pieces into the video for the start of 2018. It an instructional video, so you will see exactly what I’m looking at. 

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of CELG and TSLA

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #bitcoin #nvidia #amd #apple #broadcom #iphone #x #tesla #model #biotech #celgene #gilead #biogen