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Stocks – IBM, MSFT, TSLA,
Macro – QQQ, SPY, Gold, Copper
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S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks are rising again, with the S&P 500 ETF trading around $326.85, and is likely to push higher to 329.40. Where there is has a resistance level, and then a gap fill which would take the ETF higher to around 332.90?
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Again, people ask how much higher the market can rise, or if it will turn lower. I simply do not know. Typically, I look for signs such as bearish betting in the options market, or the technical trends. Recently those trends have been bearish. But to this point, it has been mostly muted, ignored, or not had time to work out. So right now, we must assume the market continues to rise, and if 329.50 is taken out in the SPY, we can wait for the gap fill up to $332.90.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
The QQQs are the index that needs to be watched since it seems that is where all the momentum is behind. Today the QQQs are testing the previous highs at $270, and if it gets through that level, then we must assume the trend has shifted, out of our trading channel. Again, the prior channel range and the bearish betting in the NASDAQ took place a lot over the past two weeks. So if things of those trends we have seen building for the past two weeks are real, then I would expect for the ETF to fail at resistance and turn lower. Today is Tuesday.
IBM (IBM)
IBM is rising today, after reporting results yesterday. I’m somewhat surprised because the company once again gave no guidance. I don’t understand why at this point, a company cannot provide guidance. The cloud unit only grew by 1.8%, and this is their big growth engine? But in a market where results don’t matter, the stock up 5%. For now, the stock is failing ta resistance at $136.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla will report results tomorrow, and the stock probably still runs higher into those results, and the next level today is $1750.
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Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft will also report results tomorrow, and that stock is at resistance at $214, and we can see if that is a turning point or break out point. The stock is costly, and I’m not sure how much more it can rise based on its current valuation, but then again, none of that seems to matter anymore.
Gold
In the meantime, gold continues to rise.
Copper
Copper continues to hold on to the uptrend. For some reason, I keep watching this metal more closely than anything. As long as copper holds the uptrend, the risk-on trade will continue to work.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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