Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
12/27/21
STOCKS –
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
- RTM: Volatility Remains Elevated As Volume Disappears
- RTM: Volatility Is Likely To Remain Elevated
- RTM: What Comes Next
- RTM Exclusive: Block, Formerly Square, May Have Further To Fall
- RTM: Closer To The Beginning, Then The End?
- RTM: Volatility May Really Ramp Up The Week Of December 20
- Ford’s Stock Is Ready To Break Much Lower
Stocks rose as volume dried up, and the VIX continued to drift lower. Somehow the VIX magically popped at around 4 am over 19, only to drift lower the entire day. I’m not sure why the VIX would jump over 19 in the middle of the night; markets weren’t doing much. But there, in the chart, you can see the jump.
There is nothing to explain as to why stocks are rising right now; volume has started to dry up, with S&P 500 future trading less today than they did on Thursday. You have to go back to late August to find lower trading volumes. It seems like a combination of volatility selling and lower market participants causing buyers to just trip over themselves.
A broadening megaphone pattern is still in play for the S&P 500. It shows the whipsaw nature of a market in transition and is outlined by the two red lines. More importantly, I think this creates an overall diamond pattern. I have been trying to figure this out since the end of November, but it was not apparent until today. That would make today’s rally the apex of the pattern.
Everything is running off this more prominent parallel diamond pattern that goes back to the September sell-off.
That’s going to be all for today. I’m going to keep these for the rest of this week.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Liquidity Tightening And Volatility Patterns Suggest Risk Ahead
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles September 19, 2025 1:26 PM