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November 17, 2021
Stocks – NONE
Macro – SPY, DXY, FXE, FXY
- RTM- The Dollar Is Ripping
- RTM Exclusive: Disney May Be Poised For A Big Rebound
- RTM- The Dollar Continues To Soar As Rates Move High
- RTM Exclusive: Mosaic’s Stock May Head Higher As Fertilizer Prices Soar
- Tactical Update: Tighter Financial Conditions Are Coming, Which Is Not Good News For Stocks
- 3Q’21 MCM Thematic Growth Investor Letter
A little different today, with a video from my midday commentary for members of my service Reading The Markets, below is a summary of that video session. Please remember to subscribe to my YouTube to get the weekly Friday updates.
Stocks were mainly lower today, as we saw risk-off take hold of several asset classes. The AUDJPY is traded lower by more than 1% and below a critical level of technical support.
The S&P 500 has been trailing this currency pair by around ten days, and my thought is that it will follow that risk-asset lower to about 4450 over the next couple of weeks.
Additionally, the 10-yr has failed at resistance again around 1.63%. I think we are heading back to that that 1.5% area of the 10-Yr.
Meanwhile, oil prices are down more than 3% now and appear to be heading to that $76 area we have been talking about.
Also, copper is struggling and down around 3.5%, and is challenging critical support around $4.29, and could fall back to $4.09.
Finally, financial conditions tightened this past week, as we expect to happen as the market begins to price in rate hikes and the effects of the stronger dollar take hold.
We also have the challenges of a higher market valuation and growth rates, which are now falling dramatically.
All of this is precisely how we have been laying it out since the late spring. Slowing growth, Fed tapering, a stronger dollar, and now tightening financial conditions. Now we have to wait for the stock market to realize it.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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