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Stocks Rise on November 16 Despite The Surging Dollar

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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November 16, 2021

Stocks – PYPL, ROKU, DIS

Macro – SPY, DXY, FXE, FXY

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The S&P 500 finished higher by 39 bps to close just below the previous all-time high. The dollar index moved higher again, this time by more than 40 bps to close at 95.92.

S&P 500 (SPY)

My wave count for the S&P 500 was almost destroyed, but it managed to hold on. Yesterday, I noted that it was possible that wave B may have corrected too much of wave A and that we would worry about it later. Today’s price action confirmed my suspicions, with the futures nearly reaching the highs of November; however, it failed to overtake those highs. If this is to stick tomorrow, then what was completed was not a wave B but a wave 2. If we rally tomorrow, then the whole concept is broken, but if we drop, we should see it extend to around 4,575 over the next few days, and then more after that. We will wait for tomorrow for confirmation.

Euro

The euro has gone into a full meltdown mode, and I don’t see it stopping until it gets into the 1.11s.

Yen

The dollar is also breaking out against the Yen and can probably climb to around 118.

Roku (ROKU)

The chart for ROKU doesn’t look all that encouraging. Sure, its RSI is hovering around 30, but it probably needs one big flush down before there is a short-term rebound on its otherwise long-term deflating stock price. A drop to $228 would likely set the stock up for a nice short-term rebound.

PayPal (PYPL)

PayPal was up some today, and it looks like that gap is starting to get filled.

Disney (DIS)

There was a lot of heavy options betting in Disney yesterday, and it looks the stock is trying to bottom here around $157. It is enough to make me think that we will likely see a rebound back to $168 to $170 over the near term. (PREMIUM CONTENT – FIRST 2-WEEKS ARE FREE TO TRY – RTM Exclusive: Disney May Be Poised For A Big Rebound)

That’s all I have for today.

Mike

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.