November 17, 2021

Stocks – NONE

Macro – SPY, DXY, FXE, FXY

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• RTM- The Dollar Is Ripping
• RTM Exclusive: Disney May Be Poised For A Big Rebound
• RTM- The Dollar Continues To Soar As Rates Move High
• RTM Exclusive: Mosaic’s Stock May Head Higher As Fertilizer Prices Soar
• Tactical Update: Tighter Financial Conditions Are Coming, Which Is Not Good News For Stocks
• 3Q’21 MCM Thematic Growth Investor Letter

A little different today, with a video from my midday commentary for members of my service Reading The Markets, below is a summary of that video session. Please remember to subscribe to my YouTube to get the weekly Friday updates.

Stocks were mainly lower today, as we saw risk-off take hold of several asset classes. The AUDJPY is traded lower by more than 1% and below a critical level of technical support.

The S&P 500 has been trailing this currency pair by around ten days, and my thought is that it will follow that risk-asset lower to about 4450 over the next couple of weeks.

Additionally, the 10-yr has failed at resistance again around 1.63%. I think we are heading back to that that 1.5% area of the 10-Yr.

Meanwhile, oil prices are down more than 3% now and appear to be heading to that $76 area we have been talking about.

Also, copper is struggling and down around 3.5%, and is challenging critical support around $4.29, and could fall back to $4.09.

Finally, financial conditions tightened this past week, as we expect to happen as the market begins to price in rate hikes and the effects of the stronger dollar take hold.

We also have the challenges of a higher market valuation and growth rates, which are now falling dramatically.

All of this is precisely how we have been laying it out since the late spring. Slowing growth, Fed tapering, a stronger dollar, and now tightening financial conditions. Now we have to wait for the stock market to realize it.

 

Mike

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