The Dollar Just Keeps On Ripping Higher on November 15

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November 15, 2021

Stocks – FB, PYPL, GM, UBER

Macro – SPY, DXY, OIL

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Stocks did nothing today, but that wasn’t where the action was. It was about the dollar and yields, as both pushed higher again. The dollar though, continues to impress and may still have much further to climb based on where the euro is trading. The dollar index was up by more than 40 bps to around 95.50. I’m still looking for it to reach 96.30, but that may only be a resting point.

The euro could be heading to around 1.11 to the dollar, or 2% lower, putting the dollar index somewhere around 97.50 to 97.85. At this point, the market continues to price in more rate hikes, and until that tune changes, I don’t see much derailing the dollar’s push higher.

10-Yr (IEF)

Meanwhile, the 10-year pushed back up to resistance around 1.63%. The spread between US and German bonds is getting wider, and if it is going to widen back to 2.06%, then the US 10-year could be trading around 1.85% very soon.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The S&P 500 gapped higher by 30 bps to start the day, and that didn’t hold. The S&P 500 futures hit the 78% retracement level of wave A, which may be too much for this to be a true wave B, but we can worry about that later. For now, I am targeting an area of around 4,590 to 4,600 for the leg down.

Facebook (FB)

It looks like Facebook has formed an inverse head and shoulder pattern. I’m hoping this one serves as a continuation pattern, and not a reversal pattern, I am not a fan of this stock. But if it is the reversal kind, then I’d think the stock rise back to $385.

PayPal (PYPL)

PayPal consolidated today, just below resistance at $213. It could have a nice move higher once above that resistance level, with a big gap to fill up at $230.

Uber (UBER)

I guess Uber is looking to fill that gap around $39. The stock just can’t seem to get out of its own way.

GM (GM)

Looks like GM is hitting resistance just as the RSI makes a lower high. That would be a bearish divergence pattern and would suggest the top is probably in again at the $63.50 area.

-Mike

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