fedex, oracle, micron, overstock, nike

FedEx, Oracle, Micron, Nike, and OverStock – A Look At The Week Ahead


FedEx, Oracle, Micron, Nike, and OverStock – A Look At The Week Ahead

There will be some prominent earnings this week with Oracle, FedEx, Nike, and Micron. But the headliner will be the FOMC meeting which concludes on Wednesday afternoon, with Jay Powell’s first press conference to follow. Expectations are for the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps, and that is widely expected. The key will be around hints of future rate hikes and inflation.

GDPNow forecast for the first quarter has slowed considerably, suggesting first-quarter GDP growth of only 1.8 percent. When looking at the computation, it seems that the part of the GDP model that has fallen the most is the PCE (Inflation) and that should not come as a surprise given recent data.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

 

Join our 536 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

FedEx

FedEx stock hasn’t performed particularly well, with the stock up by only 1 percent on the year. Analysts are looking for fiscal third-quarter results to show that revenue climbed by 7.8 percent to $16.17 billion, while earnings are expected to rise by 32.7 percent to $3.12. For the fiscal fourth quarter, the street is looking for revenue guidance of $16.81 billion, with earnings of $4.86 per share.

The technical setup in the stock is not overly bullish or bearish, as the stock appears to be in a period of consolidation. But based on the configuration, I would lean with the risk of shares falling over the coming weeks, backs towards technical support of $237.60.

fedex


Oracle

Oracle has gone nowhere since last summer, and with the stock trading near its highs, it has a good shot of breaking out this time around. Analysts are expecting the company to post fiscal third-quarter earnings grew by 4.6 percent to $0.72 per share, while revenue is supposed to have climbed by 5.5 percent to $9.77 billion. Fourth quarter estimates are calling for revenue of $11.22 billion, and earnings of $0.90 per share.

I noted on Friday, the buying activity in the April options, which may be a sign someone is betting heading into results the stock will rise, while it would be interesting to see if that buyer of the calls comes back on Monday before results.

The technical setup in the chart is bullish, with the stock having a strong possibility of breaking out. It would only need to rise above $53.50 for me to think of it as a breakout.

oracle

Advertisements

Nike

Nike stock has started to shows signs of cracking these days, and these results will be a big deal. According to estimates, analysts are looking for earnings to fall by 22 percent in the third quarter to $0.53, and revenue to fall 5 percent to $8.85 billion. The big thing will be North American sales, and how those are projecting going forward. Investors are betting on a big come back in North America, and a meaningful pick in business from the World Cup in June. For the fiscal fourth quarter analyst are looking for revenue of $9.35 billion, and earnings of $0.72.

The chart doesn’t look all that great, and I could really see shares falling after results, and a decline below $65 likely sends the stock towards $57 and $59.

nike

Advertisements

Micron

Micron we have focused on a lot lately, and there aren’t many stocks that have better chart setups than Micron. The momentum is apparently behind them, and they are having a pre-earnings run-up like Netflix and Amazon, and it makes my gut say we could continue to see the stock run.

Despite all the big upgrades on Micron in recent days, the earnings and revenue estimates for this year next have only climbed marginally, in a range between 3 and 7 percent, not huge when considering the stock is up 47 percent.

MU Chart

MU data by YCharts

I still can’t figure out why analysts see no revenue growth for a company that is the middle of what could be a big growth period for Micron. With increases in the cloud, AI, mobile, and even autonomous driving, chips and especially memory are likely to be part of that growth cycle, but yet, analysts consensus estimates forecasting no revenue growth through 2020? It is a bit of a mystery to me, and when reading a lot of the analyst comments in recent days, the upgrades seem to be slanted more towards multiple expansion than earnings and revenue growth.

MU Chart

MU data by YCharts

I think for Micron this will be a very big quarter, and there is a lot baked into this run-up, so guidance will be a big deal, and commentary around margins will be the biggest part. The way those analysts estimate trend now, it suggest the company can’t hold margins over the longer-term and that may be an issue.

I have been done a good job calling Micron’s direction in the past, and the stocks just seems and feel vulnerable here. To be honest to this point I haven’t even been seeing the huge option bets like in the past. I will keep watching this one very closely into Thursday.


Overstock

I know nothing on this company, and after looking at the chart, and the estimates, it will stay that way. The chart looks horrible. The only thing keeping it from falling to around $30 is the 200-day moving average. RSI is still trending lower and is just about ready to hit oversold levels. Volume is starting to ramp-up which means a capitulation moment is likely approaching soon.

ostk

The stock is projected to loss money through 2022, and the revenue growth rates look fairly low. Nothing excites me here, certainly not enough to chance it.

Again, this is a quick look at this company, as I got some decent requests to do so. So take it for what it is worth.

Good Luck this week.

Mike

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Previewing Micron And Oracle

Looking At Twitter

More Upgrades On Amazon And Micron

Micron Jumps, Nvidia’s Breakout

Market Surges Breakouts All Over

Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

 

Free Articles Written By Mike:

GE Options Traders Bet Stock Will Fall 15% Further

Nike’s Stock Seen Ready For a 10% Pullback

Microsoft Bulls May Be Too Bullish

Alibaba Stock May Surge By 11%

Why Broadcom May Rise As Much As 17%

Twitter’s Soaring Stock May Go 25% Higher

Why Visa’s Stock May Rise 14% in 2018

Why Celgene’s Beaten Down Stock Can Rise 28%

Ford Options Traders Bet Stock Will Fall 25% This Year

Biogen’s Bargain Price May Spur a 14% Stock Gain

Qualcomm Poised For 20% Drop After Broadcom Deal Halted

Nvidia’s Breakout Seen Fueling 14% Stock Gain

Why Overvalued Gilead May Fall 10%

3 Chip Stocks Poised to Rise as Much as 26%

Facebook Seen Rising 20% Defying Skeptics

Roku Shares Could Fall 50% Further

Why Micron’s Stock Bulls May Be Wrong

Why Bank Stocks Are Ready for a Short-Term Pullback

 

Join our 536 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

Photo credit via Flickr

 

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #oracle #micron #overstock #fedex #nike

Advertisements