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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own Netflix, Tesla, and Alphabet
Michael Kramer owns SPY Calls
The S&P 500 is now about 2% from its all-time high, and I think at this point we should enjoy our achievements. Not many were calling for this 23% rally, and it feels so good to have been proven correct, despite all the criticism taken along the way.
Recession?!
Recession fears, earnings worries. What happened? All we have heard from the “all-knowing’s and masters of the universe” for what felt like an eternity is to worry about economic doom and gloom. “Global Growth is slowing; a recession is coming,” the collective said over and over –so much for that! The S&P 500 has crossed 2,860, and there is not much standing in the way of an all-time high. What now? How much longer can people stay bearish? They have only missed a nearly 23% rally since December 24. Talk about being wrong?
Let’s say the latest PMI numbers continue to suggest anything but a recession is on the way, something I have said over and over, and over again. The March reading for Manufacturing came in at 55.3 versus estimates of 54.2, and up from 54.2 last month. Also, the latest GDPNow forecasts are calling for 1Q growth of 2.1%. I’m no rocket scientist, but these numbers do not scream of a recession. Where did these overblown worries come from? Talk about being wrong, twice!
Could we suddenly slip into recession, who knows, I guess anything is possible? I will tell you what though, if the first quarter is the worst quarter of this cycle, as the earnings estimate we have tracked project, and we print a 2% GDP for the first quarter, then stocks have much more room to rise. It will likely signal that GDP growth for the rest of the year will be far better than anybody expected.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 is trading around 2,866, and between here and 2,870 there may be some mild resistance. But after that, we are talking about a return to near an all-time level high of around 2,915.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon busted out today, rising through the bull flag I mentioned in the column yesterday. The next significant level to watch for comes around $1850.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix is also rising after holding support at $355, and now $378 is on the horizon.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet is also rising from support at $1,175 and is likely on its way back to $1,225.
AMD (AMD)
AMD had a huge day rising over 3%, back over resistance at $25.70, and all signs are pointing to a move to $29.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla is set to release its production and delivery numbers any minute. Lately, it has been on the 2nd day of the new quarter before the open of trading. Talk about the moment of truth; this stock is facing all sorts of resistance around $292 to $298. If the stock gets above those levels, then it may have much higher to climb. Bloomberg is estimating about 79,000 Model 3’s produced in the quarter, and if Tesla’s produces its usual number of around 25k model S and X then we could be looking at over 100k units in the quarter, that is my guesstimate. I guess we will find out very soon.
AT&T (T)
What else. Oh, AT&T was even up 2% today. The stock is breaking out and looks like it may be heading towards $34.25. I wrote it up on Thursday, here it is for free.Â
-Mike
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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. amazon
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Rates Surge Stocks Drop Following Hot Job Report, CPI Next Week
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles January 10, 2025 12:02 PM