This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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Intel, AMD, Square, Acadia, & Facebook: Breaking Down or Breaking Out?
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN ACAD
I got a few questions today about Intel and the technical chart so we can start with that. The main issue on everyone mind is the break out busted? The answer: I do not think so. First, we can see the stock fell to below the supportive downtrend, but the stock stayed around the trend for most of the day. Second, the shares stopped falling around $45,90, which turns out upon closer review to be a support level in itself.
So this is how it goes. If Intel is unable to rebound tomorrow and falls further, then I have to say yes, the break out may have failed. If Intel should rise, then I would say the break out is still alive and well.
Yeah, some will laugh and say some call, but honestly, that is just how it happens sometimes.
Let’s move on to the second most talked about stock, AMD. So I laid out a cautionary note in yesterday updated posted, that I’d like to see a follow through for AMD from yesterday afternoon surge. It appeared for most of the morning the stock had broken out, but by days end the story had changed. What is interesting is that the shares ran as high as the green uptrend, only to fail and then drift lower, finding support around $32.30. So again, I’m cautious on this one, until proven otherwise.
Square got a massive price target boost today from Nomura and announced it was going into payroll, and the stock exploded higher, breaking out in a big way. That is how it goes sometimes. I wish I knew how high it goes from here, but I don’t at this point. I haven’t had time to think about it. But the stock surely isn’t cheap. But valuation does not seem to matter in this.
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Facebook is still struggling and the price action isn’t that encouraging. There must be a giant seller hanging around the $164 to $166 level because every time stock gets to that price it just stops rising. I’m not sure if the buyers are brave enough to let it try to come in, on the fear of missing it. But until it rises above $166 the trend is still lower.
Acadia continues to move higher, up another 8% today. The stock is close to technical resistance at $21.50. If it can manage to stay around that level, I think it can move to around $22.60
Boeing still hasn’t broken out, and it is pretty amazing to me that it can’t.
Yields on the 10-year are so close to a pretty big break out!
China has already broken out of its downtrend.
Good Luck tomorrow!
Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital and the creator of Reading the Markets.
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