This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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June 19, 2020
STOCKS – AAPL
MACRO – SPY, VIX
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
Stocks had an eventful day opening at the highs and closing near the lows. In all, the S&P 500 fell by 2.25% from peak to trough. The volatility shouldn’t have been a surprise, but the truth of the matter is that if today hadn’t been a quadruple witching day, I think the market would have fallen even more.
The futures continued moving lover after the closing falling to as low as 3055, a drop of nearly 2.8% from peak to trough.
In fact, the sell-off accelerated; it could even be an indication for how dealers need to be hedged as a result of the gamma roll-off today.
What triggered the sell-off was news that Apple would start closing some of its stores in a few states with rising COVID cases. The big question is what happens next, and will more companies begin to follow suit if cases continue to rise. Right now, this could be the biggest threat to the market, because so much is riding on a short live contraction and sharp recovery. The slightest concern or thought that the recovery might not go smoothly could be a significant speed bump for the market, and this is something that needs to be monitored closer. I’m not sure the market has priced in the risk of slower recovery.
But also notice that the S&P 500 has failed now three-time around the 3150 level, and struggled at that level all week. It could be a somewhat negative sign for what is to come next week.
Looking at from one more angle, using the SPY ETF, it gets a little bit worse because we can also see how the index not only failed in that region three times but, it three failed times at a downtrend that is now firmly in place.
The VIX spiked as a result of today, jumping to around 35.
I’m going to leave it there for a Friday night. Plenty to review over the weekend.
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