June 26, 2020
STOCKS – NKE, TSLA, DIS, AMD
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, HYG
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TESLA
Overnight trading continues to remain volatile with the S&P 500 Futures reaching resistance at 3080, and falling to support around 3,050. Currently, futures are trading near the upper end of the trading range, but again, it suggests that 3050 for now, will be our support level for the day. It was a severe level of resistance for nearly all day yesterday.
At this point, heading into the final days of June, the seasonal headwinds continue not to favor stocks rising. However, the fact that the drawdown has been so mild to this point may be a big positive going into July. So we will need to continue to monitor this. Where we close to today, likely depends on investors’ appetite going long into the weekend. I’m not sure I would if I traded daily. I’d expect to get a retest of support at 3050 today, if not a breakdown.
However, the most significant risk on the horizon over the near term is what the Federal government will do when the PPP expires at the end of July. This could be one thing that gives the market a problem this summer if lawmakers drag their feet.
For the Qs, the only thing that matters is $240. As long as that level holds, the trend is still higher.
High Yield (HYG)
Keep an eye on the HYG ETF; it seems that two are diverging just a bit the last few weeks.
Nike is falling today after reporting weaker than expected results last night. The stock has done a fantastic job of holding support at $97. That is the critical level for the stock to hold today, with the risk of sharing falling back to $88.50.
Tesla has been moving higher and, more importantly, it is holding that uptrend. It seems it may be forming an ascending triangle, with the potential for shares to push higher over the next few weeks to around $1265.
AMD fell below support at $53, and AMD needs to get back above $53 today. Otherwise, the stock may be heading lower from here; the RSI suggests it does fall.
Disney is sitting on support at $109, and it has to hold that level. If that level cracks, the stock is likely falling to $99. The RSI is breaking down.
Have a great Friday
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