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Looking At Micron, Acadia, Amazon, Splunk, Square, Intel, AMD, Netflix
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL SHARES ACAD, NFLX
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Stocks jumped today, with the S&P 500 rise by roughly 80 bps to 2,930 on Thursday, reach the target we laid out a week or so ago. But anyway, there should be no surprise that equities continue making no highs. There is no reason for them not to be at this point. Honestly, it is that simple. Low valuations, strong earnings, and a strong economy are a recipe for higher equity prices. I’m not going to sit here and try to predict every 25 points in the S&P 500. Let’s stick with a target of 3,000.
Rates
Again, the one concern I do have centers around interest rates. I know I have preached lower rates, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t know where rates go if they do break out. If yields break out, and the 10-year rises above 3.12%, I can see them increasing very fast to about 3.3%. Yep, and that might be a problem for equities. It is the only thing I worry about right now. Let’s hope rates do not break out and come back down some.
Micron (MU)
Micron reported better than expected fourth quarter results, and solid gross margins. Shares spiked in the after-hours following the results to roughly $48.25. But shares quickly faded after the company gave lower than expected EPS guidance of $2.95 at the mid-point, $0.10 below consensus of $3.05. Gross margins are expected to in a range of 57 to 60%, below the fourth quarter’s results.
Revenue guidance also came in worse than expected at $8.1 billion at the mid-point, versus estimates of $8.4 billion.
I don’t know if this is a disaster regarding first quarter results. It is one reason why the stock has fallen so sharply. But I also do not think there was enough there to push shares higher. I’m sticking with my view of a decline to $40.
Acadia (ACAD)
Yesterday, I noted that it appeared the tide was turning in Acadia’s favor, and it sure did today. The stock spiked by almost 26%, when the FDA released a statement saying there were no added safety issues for the drug. Geez, what a surprise. We knew that months ago, Anyway, the next level of resistance comes around $21.50. The significant overhang is now removed, and much of the bear thesis is finally laid to rest, the shares can begin to rise again. There are plenty of catalysts for this stock over the next 2 months. Include data on its depression, which could come in October or early November.
Amazon (AMZN)
The trend is still lower for Amazon, it is struggling to get over resistance.
Intel (INTC)
Intel looks as if it is ready to burst higher. The pattern is falling wedge, and the RSI is signaling a bottom is in place. An increase over $48, moves this stock quickly to $51.
AMD (AMD)
Not the greatest of signs for AMD, with the stock retesting its uptrend, failing to rise above it, and then staying below resistance the rest of the day. Careful.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Square (SQ)
Square, had a nice little bounce today, but which way is that trend still going? Lower. Yep.
Facebook (FB)
Facebook is trying so hard to get above $166.50, but it can find the strength! A rise above resistance sends the stock higher to $173. If the stock stays below resistance, the stock falls back to $159, and probably lower.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix keeps grinding higher along the downtrend. Tomorrow may be the day we finally get the breakout.
Splunk (SPLK)
Splunk is still working to fill the gap at $105.
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SPY, MU, ACAD, SPLK, AMZN, NFLX, SQ, AMD, FB,
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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