Subscribe to receive this daily commentary directly in your email
Independent macro and options research, published every trading day — $85/mo or $750/yr
Subscribe →OCTOBER 26, 2020
STOCKS – AAPL, CRM, NVDA
MACRO – SPY
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
Not a great day for stocks as they continue to drop, as investors begin to realize a stimulus is unlikely to come before the election. Coupled with rising coronavirus cases in Europe and the US, it was enough to get the market worried.
The bigger question that should be on everyone’s mind is if there is no deal until after the election, there is a good chance there is no deal until after January. If that is the case, and Covid cases are spiking, it could mean the economy is about to take another hit. It doesn’t take lock-downs to slow the economy; all it takes is people choosing to spend less.
It could certainly increase the risk and the odds of a double-dip recession, certainly the market has not priced in that outcome. That is the big risk on the horizon at this point. (premium content – Double Dip Recession Fears To Come?)
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 fell below support at 3,425 and managed to fill the technical gap at 3,370 quickly. That level held and bounced fairly strongly off of it. Perhaps it will mark a bottom for the balance of this week, who knows. Clearly, it sets up a good chance for a rebound tomorrow or later this week to fill the gap up at 3,465.
Navigating The Market · By Michael Kramer Independent macro and options research, published every trading day. Daily written analysis covering gamma exposure, dealer flows, key levels, and the macro drivers moving markets. Includes full video access. Recent Subscriber Analysis
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia had an interesting day, as it moved to its lower uptrend for the first time since September 24. The big question is if it will bounce or continue lower. Rising volume on falling prices signifies that sellers are entering the stock, while the RSI is clearly trending lower. A drop below that uptrend would result in a decline to around $461.
Apple (AAPL)
Somehow Apple managed to finish the day higher and stayed within its wedge. I am still somewhat bullish on Apple and think it can still climb to around $124.
The Market Chronicles · Video Membership The daily market commentary, delivered in video. Same daily market analysis, in video form — available to YouTube channel members only. Latest Videos
Salesforce (CRM)
Salesforce was weak today, falling to $236, but holding. That’s a big level that needs to keep for Salesforce to avoid the gap fill down to $215.
Have a good night
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Markets Rally on Falling Volatility as Yen Shock and Liquidity Turn Approach
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles 6 hours ago