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The Moment Of Truth For Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple
Tesla
You just have to feel bad for the Tesla bears for at least a second. Ok, that enough feeling bad for them. Like I wrote last night, they just don’t get it. It was the moment they were all waiting for, the big Model 3 failure. Even better Tesla lowered its ramp-up rate and pushed it out a quarter, and you know what the market said, “We Don’t Care!”. That’s becauseย it is not about, units falling two cars short, or the ramp-up rate being one or two quarters later, this is a longer-term play. If Tesla is going to be a success, one quarter is not going to make a difference over the long-term, and as history has proven before raising money has not been an issue, and is likely not to be an issue. Tesla can come to market when it ever it pleases to raise the cash it needs to fund operations, as it has numerous times in the past.
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No Guts, No Glory
Investing in Tesla is game of nerve.ย I can remember the days in the middle of February in 2016 when this stock was trading around $140, and the level of nervousness I felt when the company was reporting those results that ultimately turned the stock. The easy thing would have been to sell the shares, and just forget it, but I know the story is real, and I have watched it developย from not only a financial perspective, but from watching the cars on the road build, and from speaking to the owners and asking them of their experience. That personal experienceย is what makes investing in Tesla so much more comfortable. It is when you can remember the days when seeing one in a parking lot or at a red light was rare. Now you can find them all over, and it has become clear to me from what I have seen on the road, they are replacing BMW, Audi, and Mercedes on the road,ย I see it every day. I use to be able to track how many Tesla I saw a week when I drove, but I stopped counting about six months ago because I could no longer keep track. You have to ask yourself if you are short, is that what you want to play against?ย I would much rather own the stock.
Apple Concerns
Yesterday I posted a premium video on the Apple iPhone concerns, and how to use basic common sense using the Apple suppliers, to determine if there is any truth to the rumors of the massive 40 percent decline in iPhone X forecast. Apple suppliers like Jabil and Broadcom have posted strong results in recent weeks, and guidance was even better. One has to ask themselves, why Broadcom or Jabil would issue such guidance, should a significant slowdown be in the works. A 20 million iPhone cut at $1,000 a phone, is about $20 billion. That is huge, and with that, these companies would have revenue fall drastically.
In the video, I go through exactly how I worked this process out.
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Nvidia’s Moment of Truth
Nvidia is genuinely at a moment of truth because the stock has managed to rise back to its previous highs around $218, and should it breakout, the stock has much more room to run higher, and I will have to admit defeat, which I am sure many of you would like. The stock is bumping up against resistance today, and for the moment it has been unable to break through. It comes down to this moment.
S&P 500 Massive Breakout
The S&P 500 had a massive breakout today, crossing above the February2016/Brexit trendline, which is now just about two years old. That is a big deal, and I think it leads to a meaningful acceleration in this rally. In the subscriber section yesterday, I noted that a rise above this trend could send the S&P 500 on towards 2825, by the end of March. We will see.
That is it for today.
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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA
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Tags: #tesla #Nvidia #apple #sp500