stocks target week in review nvidia amd

The Monster Week In Review: Target, Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Tesla and More


The Monster Week In Review: Target, Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Tesla and More

The market continues to rise at a torrid pace, and the S&P 500 is now up by over 4 percent for the first 9 trading days of 2018. But it is not the technology group leading the markets higher in 2018, its energy and consumer discretionary stocks, which have already surged by 7.3 and 6.4 percent. 

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

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Energy stocks continue to outperform as Oil continues to rise, and that rise likely will not stop anytime soon. WTI Oil has already surged by nearly 7.5 percent to start the year. From the looks of the chart for Oil, it seems more likely to see $75, before we see $60 again. 


Consumer Discretionary Stocks

If Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) stocks are ripping higher, then Amazon ($AMZN) and Netflix ($NFLX) must be pulling the group up. But, it is Target ($TGT), up nearly 13.5 percent in 2018, then Netflix, and Amazon. 

target amazon netflix

But shares of Target, have rallied hard and look overextended. The stock has broken out of a multi-year downtrend, but has an extremely high relative strength index (RSI) reading, higher than 70, a reading over 70 indicates overbought levels. It means the stock could be due for a pull-back or period of sideways consolidation. 



Netflix shares have gone into beast mode, and one can only imagine what the expectations are going into earnings. The technicals suggest the stock is overbought at the current price, and it has to make any investor think we get a sell the news response after results. I for one do not like seeing this type of price action going into an earnings report. It likely means expectations could be approaching unachievable levels. 

nflxThe options set to expire on February 16, are pricing in a nearly 10 percent move up or down for the online streaming media giant, using the $220 strike price. Huge! It seems likely that spread gets bigger this coming week as well, with earnings slated for January 22. 


The expectations for Amazon continue to build as well, as the online retailer, moves higher, like Netflix. The long-straddle for expiration on February 16, using the $1310 strike price, only indicates a rise or fall of 7.5 percent. 


Chip Stocks

The chip stocks, despite some of the negative headlines about the Spectre virus, have been performing reasonably well in 2018, with the PHLX Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) now up 5.5 percent, and could be on the verge of a significant breakout. 

chip stocks

The chart above shows just how the ETF is making a run towards its earlier highs, last seen in late November before all the Apple iPhone supply issues started floating around. A rise above $183 signals a clear breakout, and given that the RSI and the price are trending higher, and the RSI is nowhere near overbought territory, I think we see that breakout. We just need a spike in volume to confirm the rise. 

It should not come to anyone’s surprise that Nvidia ($NVDA) and AMD ($AMD) are the best-performing stocks in the group, up about 18 and 16 percent, respectively. It’s no surprise either that Intel is the worst performing stock in the group down nearly 6 percent. 


Nvidia had its monster breakout, and to this point has been able to hold that breakout, staying above $219. 



Trying to predict the direction of AMD lately has been a nightmare. It feels like it can change course like the wind, and it doesn’t take much to make this stock rise or fall by 3-5 percent. But I’ll take a stab at it, and say that ADM looks like it’s set to rise.  The RSI has increased, and the recent consolidation in the stock bares the resemble of a bullish pennant. I shall guess, and say we see $14.25, some time in the not to distance future. 



For Intel, the long-term picture still looks solid, but in the short-term, the stock looks at risk of falling further, perhaps to as low as $41.50.



What would the week be without some crazy call on Tesla? The stock appears to have had a significant multi-month breakout, and we can see the market tried to retest that breakout today. The stock held above the downtrend and the breakout continues to be intact. $385 seems possible, yes even from the current price.


That’s it! More tomorrow for the week ahead. 

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX and TSLA

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Tags: #chips #stocks #energy #consumer #target #amazon #netlix #intel #nvidia #amd #tesla