Nervousness Seems To Be Picking Up In The Stock Market

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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MAY 29, 2020

STOCKS – WFC

MACRO – SPY, GLD, SMH, DOLLAR

MIKE’S READING THE MARKET PREMIUM CONTENT – 

Stocks are flat at this point of the day and have been bouncing around quite a bit. S&P 500 futures had been down quite a bit overnight and have managed to bounce back. It seems like volatility in the market is starting to pick up these the last few days. It is coming at a time when there is a lot of economic data coming next week, with ISM and job reports. These will be rather significant reports because they will be measured during a time that we have seen the economy largely reopen, so to some degree, it will be a moment of truth. 

So far, the regional data I have seen suggests an improvement in May over April. However, the data in May is still bad and is akin to the recession of 2008-09. So I’m not sure that it is good. Therefore the increasing amount of volatility could be a signal of some nervousness around this incoming data. Then through in the potential for what may come out against China later today, and things could start to heat up. I went back and watched a video I did in May 2019, and it seems to me that using the 2019 playbook suggests that Trump is likely to be tough on China, especially since markets are significantly higher than their March lows. 

If we should continue lower today, than the 3,000 level is likely to act as support. 

S&P 500, spy

Dollar

The dollar index is starting to breakdown, so watch this closely. 

Gold (GLD)

That is helping to lift gold just a bit and could push gold back on the path towards $1800.

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Wells Fargo is moving down again today, and as I noted in a free story the stock is likely heading back to $26. Free story  – Wells Fargo’s Stock May Soon Reverse Lower

wfc, wells fargo

Semis (SMH)

Keep an eye on the SMH; the ETF appears to be forming a triple top on the intraday chart with a drop below $135, confirming the pattern.

semis, smh

That’s going to be all, have a great Friday

-Mike

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

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