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Netflix, Biotech, Alphabet, Facebook, and Microsoft- Now What?
What’s the saying, easy come, easy go? Despite all the mayhem, the S&P 500 is still up by nearly 3.5 percent so far in 2017. Amazon is up almost 23 percent, Netflix is up about 40 percent, Alphabet is up about 6 percent, and Facebook is up about 8 percent.
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Too Far, Too Fast
Those are some pretty healthy gains, for only a few weeks of the year. Meanwhile, earnings for all the company’s mentioned were solid; the stocks are just guilty of rising too far too fast, while investor expectations got well ahead of themselves.
It was Monday, January 29, that I noted that Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft were all at well-overbought levels, while Apple was struggling. Well, the stocks came back to earth by the end of this week, and that is good.
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Valuations
Believe it or not, Alphabet only trades at 23 times 2019 forward earnings estimate of $49.09. Meanwhile, Facebook trades at just 22 times 2019 estimates of $8.93, while Microsoft sits at 23.50 times estimates of $3.93. These are not expensive for the type of growth they offer investors, and likely means that unless we get a total collapse in their earnings power, it isn’t likely they fall too far.
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Netflix
The one stock that was most impressive all week was Netflix, which was only down 2.5 percent, better than the S&P 500 nearly 4 percent decline, especially given the stocks massive start to the year.
Most amazing is that Netflix finished Friday higher by nearly 90 bps, despite the S&P 500 falling over 2 percent. Like I mentioned earlier in the week, it almost feels like the buyers are using any weakness in the market to soak all the liquidity that comes their way.
We need to continue to watch how Netflix trades over the coming days. Because once the market stabilizes, Netflix may be on its way much higher.
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Biotech Stocks
The biotech stock also held up reasonably well in the madness of Friday’s trading, with the IBB falling by only 1.6 percent. Despite the ETF falling below support at $113, which proved not to be nearly as strong as I had thought, its uptrend is still in place. We will not want to see the IBB break $111, or we are looking at a fall back towards $106.
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Michael Kramer of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL an NFLX
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
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Tags: #netflix #biotech #stocks #microsoft #amazon #alphabet #microsoft
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.