This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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4 Stocks That Are Signaling The Stock Market Is Ready To Fall
Did you notice that VIX today, surging to 13.5, a 23 percent jump? Now mind you, 13.5 is still a very low reading for the VIX, the chart below should help to put it into some perspective. So if you start hearing about the VIX surging today, don’t get all panic. I will begin worrying when it gets to 25. Until then, just watch it, and be is aware of it.
It could merely be a sign that traders are starting to buy some more protection in the market, and can you blame them? Have you seen how the high the S&P 500 relative strength reading is? It is at its highest level in 10 years! 10-years! That is crazy, the market has come too far too fast, and now it needs to cool off.
Sign are emerging that cooling period is coming, take Apple. I have said when it comes to the iPhone; I have no clue what the supply chain is saying, I just do not have that type of insight. The bull/bear camp seems evenly divided as well, but the Apple supplier stocks have acted terribly.
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Now for the first time, Apple stock is starting to act as though there may be an iPhone issue. Does that mean Apple dominance is over, no! But we can see that Apple’s stock is now down on the year vs. the S&P 500 that is up nearly 7 percent.
But the technical chart below suggests more downside risk, before meeting some support around $166. But a break of $166, could see Apple drop more, to potentially $159. Nothing earth-shattering, but it depends on when the drop comes before or after results. We shall continue to monitor this.
Amazon just continues to rise into these upcoming results, and its RSI is no different then S&P 500, with a reading well into the 80’s.
Alphabet is in the same boat, well overbought.
These aren’t just any companies they the four most significant companies by market cap in the S&P 500, representing nearly $3.1 trillion. If these four stocks go lower, then the whole market will go lower. Not only that but what I found shocking when I did this analysis is that Alphabet has a market cap that is only $30 billion less than Apple at $823 billion, vs. Apple’s $855 billion. Could Alphabet soon eclipse Apple, and be the first company to a trillion market cap? Maybe…
Did I mention all of these companies report on Wednesday and Thursday this week? Stay tuned.
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL
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Tags: #vix #sp500 #apple #alphabet #microsoft #amazon