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Stocks finished mostly lower today, and it could have been far worse if not for Nvidia. The S&P 500 declined by 40 bps, while the equal-weight RSP fell sharply by 1.4%.
The S&P 500 futures closed precisely at their 10-day exponential moving average. Notably, trading volume picked up slightly, reaching the 20-day moving average. The critical question now is whether sellers return tomorrow to drive prices lower—and given how thin volumes have been over the past month, it likely won’t take much to tip the scales.
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Following the hotter-than-expected headline CPI report, the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.02%. The yield appears to have decisively broken above key resistance at 4.97%, setting the stage for a potential retest of the mid-May highs around 5.15%. And frankly, given current momentum, there’s no obvious reason it couldn’t push even higher.
The 10-year rate is also now around 4.5%, and it is at a point where it could be much higher, with the potential to rise to around 4.8%.
Rates are going up because inflation expectations are rising, and the cause-and-effect relationship here is as straightforward as one can get.
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Meanwhile, the 10/2 is so close to breaking out. It is right there…
The dollar made a notable move higher today, and it appears to have broken out of its downtrend, potentially paving the way for further rise.
Meta still has 2b top in place, and today it closed on support at $710. If that support breaks, the neck stop is $680, and then we can start thinking about something much bigger on the downside.
-Mike
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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