S&P 500- Next Leg Higher

Mott Capital May 2017 Performance Report

Here is a basic chart of the S&P 500 I just threw together tonight. You can see in the upper right corner, the S&P 500 has been consolidating nicely in this 2430 level. It seems to indicate the index is likely to break higher in the near future.

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We can also see that the 10-Year Treasury rate is filling the gap created in the days immediately following the election.
^TNX Chart

^TNX data by YCharts

 

Investors point to the falling sign of the 10-2s and the flattening of the curve as a sign of a slowing economy.
10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread Chart

10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread data by YCharts

Again, much of this is wrong, in my opinion. The 10-2 spread is contracting because the gap is being filled on the 10-year, while the rates on the short end of the curve have been rising steadily in anticipation of more rate tightening.

The last reading for the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was 3.4 percent GDP for the Second Quarter of 2017. The next reading is on the June 9. Does that sound like a recession is coming?

Continued economic growth, will result in the yield curve likely to begin steepening again. Which is a positive for equities.

 

This next chart is a preview for tomorrow.

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Disclaimer: Michael Kramer is the Founder and Portfolio Manager of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendation made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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