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Stocks finished higher for a second day in a row, but in this unconvincing fashion, with big intraday swings all day long. Given the importance of tomorrow’s festivity, it seems that volatility is too low since nobody knows what will happen. The one clear thing is that reciprocal tariffs will be put in place; one could assume that tariffs will likely be equal to or maybe slightly less than the tariffs currently imposed on US exports.
Trump keeps talking about how lenient he is, so does that mean that if Mexico, let’s make up a number, has tariffs of 50% on US goods, Trump will be a nice guy and charge a 40% tariff on goods from Mexico? No one knows, and from what I have been reading, it doesn’t seem like any decision has been made yet, with the final decision coming tomorrow morning.
Given this level of uncertainty, a VIX at 22 and a VIX 1-day at 20 seem too low, given that we have seen these values higher ahead of big economic reports or Fed meetings. I would argue that tomorrow’s events will be more significant and lasting than a 25 bps rate cut/hike, or hot/cold CPI report.
Assuming the news is held all day and not released until 4 PM, I think the VIX 1 day moves higher and is closer to 30 than 20. Then, we have to get the job report on Friday, and this guy, Jay Powell, is speaking later that day.
So, I think implied volatility will rise much more throughout tomorrow and Thursday. It also looks like the S&P 500 futures are squeezing out a rising wedge or bear pennant pattern. I don’t think it matters which it is because the outcome is likely to be the same, suggesting that the next move in the S&P 500 futures lower starts from current levels, undercutting and dropping below the 5,640 level and eventually breaking 5,520.
I guess we can see what happens…
-Mike
Terms By ChatGPT
1. Intraday swings – Large price movements in a stock or market index that occur within a single trading day.
2.Volatility – A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns; in markets, it refers to how much prices fluctuate.
3.Reciprocal tariffs – Import taxes that are imposed in response to tariffs set by another country, typically aiming to match or counteract them.
4.Tariffs – Taxes imposed on imported goods, often used to protect domestic industries or respond to trade imbalances.
5.VIX – The CBOE Volatility Index; it measures market expectations for volatility over the next 30 days, often referred to as the “fear gauge.”
6.VIX 1-day – A short-term volatility index measuring expected market volatility over the next single trading day.
7.25 bps (basis points) – A unit of measure used in finance to describe interest rate changes; 25 basis points = 0.25%.
8.CPI report – Consumer Price Index report; a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services.
9.Implied volatility – The market’s forecast of a likely movement in a security’s price, derived from the prices of options.
10.S&P 500 futures – Financial contracts that speculate on the future value of the S&P 500 index.
11.Rising wedge / Bear pennant pattern – Technical chart patterns indicating potential bearish (downward) movement in asset prices.
12.Undercutting – In trading, when a price drops below a previously established support level or prior low.
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