S&P 500 Pulls Back as Head and Shoulders Pattern Emerges Around the Full Moon

The S&P 500 fell again on the day, dropping by around 1%, and as low as 6,720, a more than 2% drop. The index managed to rally back later in the day. The overnight sessions have been weak, and the mornings have been equally weak over the past two nights, yet the index still makes impressive rallies from the lows. The symmetry in the index is pretty impressive, with the two peaks on the left side of the chart, the head, and the two lower peaks on the right side. It could be considered a nicely formed head-and-shoulders pattern, along with a 20-day moving average rolling over. Still, we need to see a confirmable close below the neckline to consider the potential consequence of the pattern.

For anyone interested, we have entered what is called the Puetz Crash Window, a theory created by Steve Puetz. His theory suggests major market crashes tend to occur around a full moon that takes place within about six weeks of a solar eclipse. The actual “window” is typically defined as six days before to three days after that full moon, particularly when the full moon is also a lunar eclipse.

Well, for what it is worth, there was a solar eclipse on February 17, 2026, and a lunar eclipse today, March 3. Does that mean the market is likely to crash? Who knows. The 1987 crash did occur during such a window

and in 1929.

I guess you could kind of argue that perhaps the drop in April 2025. But as you can see, these things happen about once a year, and most of the time nothing happens.

But who knows, South Korea was down 7% last night.

Anyway, enjoy your evening…

-Mike

Glossary by ChatGPT

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern — A technical chart formation with three peaks that signals a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend once the neckline support is broken.

Lunar Eclipse — An astronomical event occurring when the Earth passes between the sun and the moon, casting a shadow on the moon during a full moon.

Moving Average (20-Day) — A technical indicator that calculates the average price of an asset over the previous 20 trading days to help identify trends.

Neckline — A support level in a head-and-shoulders pattern that connects the lows between peaks and whose break confirms the pattern.

Puetz Crash Window — A market theory suggesting that major stock market crashes tend to occur near a full moon that happens within roughly six weeks of a solar eclipse.

Solar Eclipse — An astronomical event that occurs when the moon passes between the Earth and the sun, temporarily blocking the sun’s light.

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