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Stock Market Sells-Off Again Has New Reasons To Sell Stocks Emerge
The stock market fell again today, honestly, it doesn’t matter because the reason shifts on daily basis. Rising rates, inflation, trade wars, technology stock valuations, Amazon, politics, more trade wars, now its Apple and yields again! Ugh. Exhausting to say the least.
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Apple
I’m not talking about Apple; I’m not, it isn’t worth the time of day. Apple gave guidance of between $60 and $62 billion; analysts have been slashing their estimates since the start of the year and are currently sitting at $61 billion because that is the mid-point and it is the most comfortable place for them to live. The markets have not worried about iPhone sales since the beginning of February, and up until yesterday, Apple was up over 5 percent on the year. The Taiwan Semi news was not good, it should not have been enough to send Apple’s stock down 7 percent in two days.
It tells us two things, well three things; investors have a short-term memory and forgot about Apple’s iPhone weakness, as they were bidding the stock up from the lows around $150 in the middle of February. Second, they were looking for a better than expected results, or three; they were not paying attention when Broadcom said the same thing last month! Come on.
That is me not talking about Apple, too.
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S&P 500 – Broader Stock Market
Moving on, the S&P 500 fell by over 80 bps, today, well because of Apple dragging down the whole sector with it. The bigger question is where is this market genuinely going? All I can tell you at this point is that each low has not been lower than the previous, and that shows us in an incredibly bizarre way; the stock market is still trend higher.
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Technology
Even the XLK technology ETF, managed to hold on to support around $66 and is still firmly within its long-term channel.
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Bonds
Why did I mention Bonds, because the 10-year got to 2.95 percent. First people are concerned the yield curve is too flat., now those concerns shift to yields on the 10-year nearing 3 percent, blah blah blah.
Well here is the thing, the US 10-year / German 10-year spread is at a fascinating point as of today. Now, let’s see what happens next week? Do the European bond buyers rush back to US Treasuries and start purchasing Treasuries? Maybe. It would surely not be the first time.
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Dollar
Not only that, the dollar index has yet to breakout over 90.50.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
1
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Unforuatnately, the bond market is getting a lot of assistance from global bond buyers, taking advantage of our higher interest. That has helped to keep a lid on yields rising significantly on the long end.
To this point, the dollar has gone nowhere, and without the dollar breaking out and start rising significantly, I can’t see yields on the long-end getting much higher at this point. Perhaps they peak right around 3 percent, after all, it was one of my ten predictions. But until the dollar breaks out, and the global bond buyers step away, I think this may be the upper end of the trading range.
I have a few other things on my mind, but well save those for tomorrow or Sunday.
That is it; I have a pounding headache.
-Mike
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Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #bonds #yields #apple #dollar
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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