This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 2,519 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
MARCH 22, 2021
STOCKS – AAPL, TSLA, NVDA
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, SPYG
- Midday 3.22.21 – A Gamma Hang Over
- Morning Note: Yields Still The Center Of Focus
- Rising Rates Are Bad For Stocks
- T.W.A – Past The Point Of No Return?
- LIVE STREAM WILL START AT 1 PM ET
- Apple’s Recent Decline Isn’t Over Just Yet
- Morning Note: Expect A Wild One
- Live Stream On 3.19.21 1 PM ET
- MIDDAY – Volatility Is Going To Pick Up In A Big Way
- Morning Notes: Rates Are Only Beginning To Climb
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA, AAPL
Stocks finished the day up, but well off their highs. Today felt like an option-related hangover from last week, with a ton of repositioning and short-covering. The 10-year fell about 2 bps, hardly enough to revive the bull run. The bottom line today just seemed like a day when the stocks are retracing from some of their losses last week, with not much to show for it.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 hit resistance around 3,950 and back right off, so no surprise. I have talked endlessly about how this 3,950-60 region on the S&P 500 futures is the upper end of the range, and it remains that way.
The VIX finished the day at 18.9, its lowest level in some time. We have talked a lot about this too, and how the range had been 20-22, which is clearly in jeopardy if we can’t retake 20 tomorrow. The VIX is falling because overall options volume is starting to decline, which isn’t really a good sign for equities, resulting in market makers reducing implied volatility levels. So we will have to see what happens. The strange thing is that the VIX fell hard today, but the S&P 500 could not break out. It means that if the VIX continues to drop and the S&P 500 doesn’t break out, this equity rally may really be over because the S&P 500 would have lost one of its key energy sources, falling Implied Volatility.
S&P 500 Growth (SPYG)
The S&P 500 Growth ETF had a good day, but again, it just appears to be a gap-fill, and if that is correct, we are likely to see the selling resume tomorrow.
Apple was no different rising, filling the gap, and failing at resistance. At this point, we can easily argue these are retracement patterns and not patterns of a stock about to make a big move higher.
Tesla did the same thing today, filling a gap and hitting resistance around $695.
NVIDIA, same pattern.
Anyway, that’s all.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.