Stock rise slightly on January 12 Despite Disaster Inflation Data

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1/12/2022

STOCKS – DOCU, ZM, ROKU

MACRO – SPY

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This is going to be short tonight sorry, will try to expand tomorrow.

It was a super strange day for the market, with the CPI reading coming in at 7% y/y in line while the core was hotter. Yields did nothing on the nominal side, with the 10-year falling to 1.74% and the 2-year rising to 91 bps. It caused the curve to flatten to 83 bps. The 5-yr real yield rose back -1.33% from yesterday’s rate of -1.41%, with breakeven inflation rates dropping to 2.85%. The dollar index also tumbled by 65 bps, while Fed Funds futures were flat across the curve.

The 30-year minus the 5-year is on the verge of a colossal break lower and sitting on support at 55 bps. If that goes, it could be on its way to 40 bps.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The S&P 500 stopped just about where it had to keep the idea of diamond pattern alive and stopping at the downtrend. If so, the index should head lower and revert to the lower uptrend around 4590.

 

Roku (ROKU)

Roku continues to drop, and there is no reason for it not to drop. The stock failed to recapture the support/resistance area at $193.50. I think the stock is now on its way to $150.

Zoom (ZM)

Zoom is still holding support at $175, but I get the feeling that it won’t last for much longer, with the stock heading to $150.

DocuSign (DOCU)

DocuSign is also resting just above support at $134, and once that goes, there is a good chance it goes all the way to $102.

Have a good one

Mike

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