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Stocks and Oil Drop Following The Weak Job Report

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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August 4, 2021

STOCKS – ACAD, ROKU

MACRO – RSP, SPY, OIL

Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN ACAD

It was a strange day for the market that started with a big miss on the ADP job report. The ADP has been spotty since the start of the pandemic at predicting the BLS job report than it had been prior. Overall the trends tend to follow one over time, but month to month, it is iffy. So I think it would be tough to say that today’s ADP report is a clear negative for the BLS report. In fact, the April ADP report had a strong reading, and the BLS was weak. So what needs to consider here is that BLS outperformed the ADP in February and March, and ADP outperformed the BLS in April and May, so it seems entirely possible that the BLS outperforms the ADP in June and July.

But when you look at them on a 4-month moving average, you can see how they come together rather nicely. In fact, a print of up to 1 million jobs in the BLS report would keep things fairly even as they are right now. So, just because the ADP report was a miss, one should not count on the BLS report missing.

S&P 500 EW (RSP)

The ISM-services index came in hotter than expected, which was a surprise. So overall, the message today on the economy was a push, and it resulted in yields trading sideways and the S&P 500 trading lower some. However, the S&P 500 EW (RSP) was down nearly 1%, and the ETF is getting very close to breaking a major trend line. This needs to be watched very closely. SINCE MAY, the ETF has essentially gone nowhere, and now it is showing some serious signs of weakness.

Oil

Oil is weakening too, and if it should continue, worries over inflation will vanish very quickly. Oil is the key driver to most inflation indexes, and where oil prices go, so too do those indexes.

Roku (ROKU)

Roku shares tanked after hours, after their active account numbers crumbled, with just 1.5 million new accounts. Even more shocking is that now Roku is losing money on their streaming players, posting negative profits for the segment due to higher costs. Meanwhile, streaming hours declined. Overall, a weak number in terms of accounts and hours, which at the end of the day is what drives revenue. Basically, that $36.46 in the ARPU translate to something like $3 and change a month per account in revenue since the company looks at ARPU on a trailing-twelve-month basis. Anyway, the stock found support at $385, but really this should go even lower. One can wonder now if it has formed a double top too.

The valuation is insanely high, much more than it should be, and it seems as if the trends are now turning. I mean, Netflix had disappointing numbers and guidance. Was Roku really going to be an outlier?

Acadia (ACAD)

Acadia reported disappointing second-quarter results with revenue missing estimates. Not what you want to see. Additionally, the Type A meeting came and went, and truthfully, I have no idea what the actual conclusion was. I can’t explain the frustration and confusion I have from this. How did the DRP study even get to this point if the FDA tells Acadia now they should be looking at sub-group. Why didn’t the FDA bring this up one time over the past 4 years? Somewhere, someone is not transparent.

Anyway, it is late.

-Mike

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