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August 4, 2021
STOCKS – ACAD, ROKU
MACRO – RSP, SPY, OIL
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIALÂ
- RTM – From Bad To Worse
- RTM – Trends Remain Bearish For Now
- RTM Short-Term Bullish Trade Idea- Comcast
- RTM Video – Exploring ISRG And SYK
- RTM- ISM Report Is Pushing Yields And Spreads Lower
- RTM Tactical Update – The Equity Market Appears To Be On A Path Similar To 2018
- RTM- Earnings Trends Have Not Improved Despite Big Beats
- RTM -Amazon May Be An On Going Concern
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN ACAD
It was a strange day for the market that started with a big miss on the ADP job report. The ADP has been spotty since the start of the pandemic at predicting the BLS job report than it had been prior. Overall the trends tend to follow one over time, but month to month, it is iffy. So I think it would be tough to say that today’s ADP report is a clear negative for the BLS report. In fact, the April ADP report had a strong reading, and the BLS was weak. So what needs to consider here is that BLS outperformed the ADP in February and March, and ADP outperformed the BLS in April and May, so it seems entirely possible that the BLS outperforms the ADP in June and July.
But when you look at them on a 4-month moving average, you can see how they come together rather nicely. In fact, a print of up to 1 million jobs in the BLS report would keep things fairly even as they are right now. So, just because the ADP report was a miss, one should not count on the BLS report missing.
S&P 500 EW (RSP)
The ISM-services index came in hotter than expected, which was a surprise. So overall, the message today on the economy was a push, and it resulted in yields trading sideways and the S&P 500 trading lower some. However, the S&P 500 EW (RSP) was down nearly 1%, and the ETF is getting very close to breaking a major trend line. This needs to be watched very closely. SINCE MAY, the ETF has essentially gone nowhere, and now it is showing some serious signs of weakness.
Oil
Oil is weakening too, and if it should continue, worries over inflation will vanish very quickly. Oil is the key driver to most inflation indexes, and where oil prices go, so too do those indexes.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku shares tanked after hours, after their active account numbers crumbled, with just 1.5 million new accounts. Even more shocking is that now Roku is losing money on their streaming players, posting negative profits for the segment due to higher costs. Meanwhile, streaming hours declined. Overall, a weak number in terms of accounts and hours, which at the end of the day is what drives revenue. Basically, that $36.46 in the ARPU translate to something like $3 and change a month per account in revenue since the company looks at ARPU on a trailing-twelve-month basis. Anyway, the stock found support at $385, but really this should go even lower. One can wonder now if it has formed a double top too.
The valuation is insanely high, much more than it should be, and it seems as if the trends are now turning. I mean, Netflix had disappointing numbers and guidance. Was Roku really going to be an outlier?
Acadia (ACAD)
Acadia reported disappointing second-quarter results with revenue missing estimates. Not what you want to see. Additionally, the Type A meeting came and went, and truthfully, I have no idea what the actual conclusion was. I can’t explain the frustration and confusion I have from this. How did the DRP study even get to this point if the FDA tells Acadia now they should be looking at sub-group. Why didn’t the FDA bring this up one time over the past 4 years? Somewhere, someone is not transparent.
Anyway, it is late.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Â
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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