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At this point, I’m just about ready to retire because I am seeing things I have no memory of or have never seen before.
The USDCHF fell by more than 3.8%, a monumental move. It was either a newfound flight to safety or a flight out of US assets altogether. But whatever it was, money quickly left the US today and returned to Switzerland.
But that wasn’t all because the EURUSD strengthened by more than 2%, while the USDJPY also strengthened by more than 2%. It would seem that every currency is now seen as either safer than US dollars or, more importantly, is seeing a massive flight of money out of US assets that is heading back home.
This is probably why Treasury yield continued to surge, with the 30-year closing around 4.87, its highest close since mid-January. Given the market dynamics, the 30-year could not only be heading back to 5% but to a new high of over 5.1%.
More interestingly, the recent rate rise has much to do with the increase in the term premium again. The 10-year term premium is back to its cycle high. This is investors’ way of saying they demand higher rates in return for the risk.
I will say that I was surprised to see that the S&P 500 was down only 3.5%, given some of the flows in FX and Bonds, I would have expected it to be down more. It was down more at one point, which amounted to about 6% around lunchtime, before returning in the day’s final half. When looking at the S&P 500 futures, it appears to have a big bearish rising megaphone pattern, and at least based on that pattern, it would suggest that all the post-tariff relief celebrations are probably gone by tomorrow.
See ya Sunday, most likely…
-Mike
Terms By ChatGPT
1. USDCHF, EURUSD, USDJPY
•Definition: These are currency pairs in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
•USDCHF: U.S. Dollar vs. Swiss Franc
•EURUSD: Euro vs. U.S. Dollar
•USDJPY: U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen
•Context: Movements in these pairs reflect shifts in currency strength and capital flows between countries.
2. Flight to Safety / Flight Out of US Assets
• Definition:
•Flight to safety: Investors moving money into perceived safer assets or currencies during times of uncertainty.
•Flight out of US assets: Capital leaving U.S. markets, often due to reduced confidence or better opportunities abroad.
•Context: These terms describe investor behaviour in response to geopolitical or economic stress.
3. Treasury Yields (30-Year)
•Definition: The return on U.S. government bonds; the 30-year yield reflects expectations of long-term interest rates and inflation.
•Context: Rising yields indicate falling bond prices and/or increased investor demand for return.
4. Term Premium
•Definition: The extra yield investors require to hold a long-term bond instead of rolling over short-term bonds.
•Context: A rising term premium suggests increased uncertainty or risk aversion about the future.
5. Cycle High (Term Premium)
•Definition: The highest point the term premium has reached within a given economic or interest rate cycle.
•Context: Indicates a peak in investor risk demands over a particular period.
6. S&P 500 Futures
•Definition: Financial contracts that speculate on the future value of the S&P 500 index.
•Context: Used by traders to hedge or speculate on U.S. equity market movements.
7. Bearish Rising Megaphone Pattern
•Definition: A chart pattern in technical analysis with widening price swings and an upward trend, typically seen as a bearish signal suggesting a potential reversal or breakdown.
•Context: Indicates volatility and possible market decline.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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