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August 14, 2020
STOCKS – AMZN, FCX, TSLA
MACRO – SPY
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – NOW WITH A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL
- Warning Signs
- The Message Remains Unchanged, The Market Has Limited Upside
- S&P 500 At THE Critical Moment
- Risk-On Still Under Stress
- Rotation Still In Force, Watch Tech Carefully
- AMD’s Overextended Stock Could Drop 7.5%
- For Now, Rotation Trade Is Keeping S&P 500 Afloat
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA
Stocks are falling globally this morning, with markets around the world down about 1%. China reported weaker than expected industrial production but better than expected retail sales. The US will get retail sales at 8:30 and industrial production at 9:15.
Still, Germany is trading down by 1%, the UK is down 1.7%, while the French CAC is down 1.6%. Asia was no better with South Korea trading down 1.23%, and HK down about 20 bps.
S&P 500 (SPY)
It leaves the S&P 500 ETF SPY trading lower by ten bps in the premarket, while the Qs are up about 40 bps. The S&P 500 has stalled out around 3,380, and we will look to see if the index can fill that gap today around 3,340. There is not much else to point to here, as not much as changed, or not going as expected.
I am mildly surprised though the market has not responded more negatively to Congress’s inability to get another relief bill complete. Either it feels what is in place is sufficient, or it is not paying attention.
Amazon (AMZN)
I wrote a story for Forbes outlining my thoughts and reasons why I think that Amazon could fall by as much as 15%. The chart is forming a triangle pattern, and while some may see that as bullish. My focus is around the RSI, which is trending lower, and volume levels are falling. It makes the stock declining to a range of $2,600 to $2,800 seem reasonable. (Free story – Amazon’s High Flying Stock May Drop By As Much As 15%)
Tesla (TSLA)
Meanwhile, Tesla got a pair of upgrades today, one from Morgan Stanley, and the other from Bank of America, with both going up to what is the equivalent of neutral ratings. The stock looked like it was heading to $1200 and probably would have gotten there if not for the announcement of a stock split. The stock is getting a boost on word the company may be creating a new car model. The next level of resistance comes around $1710, so we can see if it gets there.
Freeport (FCX)
At this point Freeport has failed again at $14.90, and now we can wait to see if the uptrend is challenged around $13.50. I don’t know why it can’t be tested, especially given the weakness we have been seeing copper recently. A break of that uptrend sends the stock back to $12.70.
Have a good day
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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