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APRIL 8, 2020
STOCKS – AAPL, WORK, SQ, SBUX
MACRO – SPY, EWG, EWY
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
Stocks are moving lower on April 8 around the globe, and are pointing to a flat opening here in the US. Again, I continue to think the recent rally we had witnessed to start the week was a short-term rally in a longer-term downtrend. It likely means we move lower still and perhaps towards that gap fill area around 2,270. Does it happen over a short-term period? I hope not; I have only built half of the list I want to add to my portfolio. The truth is, we want it to happen slowly. The market has been moving at an ultra-fast pace since October 2019, and these sharp moves higher and lower create these unstable periods of heightened volatility.
As I have been describing in the premium area, I have been breaking these stock market moves into phases, just like all the economic relief plans. The first phase was a pure shock that the virus was going to have a significant impact on the economy. The more recent rallies off the lows were phase 2, which was the relief rally on a receding virus threat. But we are now transitioning over to phase 3 as we enter earnings season. Phase 4 will be the realization that we are not in a V or U shape recovery, but something which I see more like the image below, a “LU.” Something between an “L” and “U.” There is nothing wrong with the shape, as I feel it is more sustainable, but not what anyone is looking for. Premium Content – Finishing Phase 2, Entering Phase 3? 
Mike’s Reading The Markets Premium Content $35/Month or $300/Year
- Finishing Phase 2, Entering Phase 3?
- Stocks Are Testing Big Resistance Levels
- Stocks Set To Rally, But Options Still Betting It Doesn’t Last
- Stocks Reach Critical Levels
- Stocks Are Jumping, Lots Of Bearish Options Betting
- Earnings Decline, Still Have Further To Fall- For The Week Of April 6
- The Next Live Webinar Will Be April 16 At 9 PM ET
- Unemployment Rate Understated, As Economy Weakens Materially
South Korea KOSPI
South Korea fell by about 90 basis points. The good news is that the KOSPI is trying to break a significant downtrend last night, but failed to finish the day down 90 basis points.
Germany
Germany is also trading lower today by about 1.4%, filling most of the gap higher from yesterday’s trading session.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 (SPY) ETF is trading lower today and holding to technical support at $263.35. Given yesterday’s sharp sell-off, I don’t think that level will stay for too long.
We see for now that the S&P 500 SPY ETF is also facing a downtrend at the moment as well. Again, I think we move lower from these levels with my target of roughly 2,500.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple’s price target was lowered to $335 from $350 at JPMorgan today. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler raised its target to $300 from $260. The stock has struggled along with every other stock, and the roll-out of its newest iPhone’s sure to be delayed. The stock rose to around $275 yesterday and failed, and is likely now on its way back down towards $235.
Slack (WORK)
Slack has fallen back to $23.90 and is now likely to fall even further towards $21. Here was my original story on Slack.
Starbucks (SBUX)
Starbucks ‘ price target was lowered to $73 from $95. Again, as I noted last night, I think it falls to around $60.
Square (SQ)
I had noted earlier this week, I thought Square could retest its recent lows, and I still think that is the case. I believe that increase above the downtrend may prove not to last.
Have a great day!
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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