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3/14/22
STOCKS – AAPL, NVDA,
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, SPYG, DIA
- RTM: The Next Leg Lower May Have Begun [DAILY UPDATE]
- RTM Tactical Update: Your Guide To This Week’s FOMC Meeting
- RTM: Fed May Be One And Done [Daily Update]
- RTM: VISA May Be Heading Sharply Lower [OPTIONS IDEA]
- RTM: Options And Bonds Were Right [DAILY UPDATE]
- Who’s Smarter? Bonds And Options Or Equities [Daily Update]
- RTM: Market Liquidity Is Thin
- RTM Exclusive: Apple May Be Heading For A Big Drop
- RTM: The Recession Trade
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN APPLE
Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 dropping by almost 75 bps, with the NASDAQ QQQ ETF falling by around 1.9%. It could have been much worse for the S&P 500 had it not been for the XLF ETF climbing by 1.25%.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Today that triangle in the SPY broke, and if we get a move lower tomorrow, it likely results in the start of the next leg lower for the markets, which could amount to a drop of around another 7%, and talked about this in more detail in this weekend’s YouTube video.
NASDAQ (QQQ)
Meanwhile, the QQQ ETF closed just above support at $317. Once that level breaks, as discussed in the video, nothing is holding the ETF from falling to around $300.
Rates
At this point, the yield curve between the 3-Yr and the 10-yr is entirely flat. This is a pretty good indication of how the markets are currently thinking about the Fed and its rate hike cycle. It would indicate that the Fed gets to around 2% and is done.
It makes a huge risk for the market going into Wednesday. If the dot plots for 2023 show a rate above 2%, the bond market could be in for a big surprise.
Dow (DIA)
The Dow had a decent day today, with the help of the financial stocks. There is what appears to be a bearish pattern in the Dow, and once the average breaks support at 32,800, it should result in the start of the next leg down for the Dow.
S&P 500 Growth (SPYG)
Something similar is currently present in the S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG). Once it breaks $59, the growth sector is likely to see the start of its next leg lower.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia has a very similar look to both the Dow and the SPYG, with support at $207.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple may be already telling us the break is coming. The stock broke down today, falling below support at $155. If $149 goes, the next level is $140.
Let’s see what tomorrow brings.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser in the State of New York. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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