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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own Disney and Skyworks
February 5, 2019
- S&P 500 +3.6 points
- 10-Year Rate 2.73%
- Oil $55.06
- VIX 15.50
- Dollar Index 95.97
International Markets
- Japan -19 bps
- South Korea -6 bps
- China – Closed (Lunar New Year)
- Hong Kong – Closed (Lunar New Year)
- UK FTSE + 1.43%
- German Dax +1.23%
Key Events for February 5:
- President Trump, Sec. Mnuchin and FOMC Chair Powell had an informal dinner to discuss the economy. You can read the Fed’s statement
- President Trump to hold The State of the Union tonight.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing: Estimates for 57.2
- Earnings
- Tuesday PM
- Disney
- SNAP
- EA
- Skyworks
- Wednesday AM
- GM
- Take Two
- Wednesday PM
- Chipotle
UK
It is incredibly positive that the UK FTSE continues to rally and is breaking above resistance at 7,120. If the rally can hold and the breakout and push higher, then there is a path for the index to rise to roughly 7,270.

Germany
The German Dax is also nearing a breaking out with the potential to rise to 11,535. The chart below shows what appears to be a bull flag formation.

Overall international equities continue to power higher, and that continues to be positive for US equity markets.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 is likely heading higher again today, with the index rising above critical resistance at 2,715 and is on its way to 2,800. I see no reason why stocks can’t continue to rally today. The path to 2,800 seems fairly straight forward from here.

Semis (SMH)
The semiconductors continue to look very strong as well, with the SMH on a path to $101.

Technology (XLK)
The XLK technology ETF appears headed towards $69.

Industrials (XLI)
The industrial ETF is also nearing a pretty big break out should it rise above $73. It could be on its way back to $75.50.

Gilead (GILD)
Gilead is falling this morning after posting disappointing results. The stock is falling back to lower support around $66 this morning.

15:45
Defined Terms and Jargon:
• Baltic Dry Index (BDI): A measure of shipping rates for raw materials, often viewed as an indicator of global economic activity.
• Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern: A bullish technical chart pattern indicating a potential reversal of a downtrend into an uptrend.
• Diamond Reversal Pattern: A technical chart formation indicating a potential trend reversal, characterized by price movements forming a diamond shape.
• QE (Quantitative Easing): A monetary policy where central banks purchase assets to inject liquidity into the economy, generally lowering interest rates and weakening currency.
• Rare Earth Metals: A group of chemically similar metallic elements crucial for advanced technological and industrial applications, including electronics and defense.
• Inflation Swaps: Financial instruments used by investors to speculate on or hedge against future inflation expectations.
• Control Group (Retail Sales): A subset of retail sales data that excludes volatile components and provides a clearer view of consumer spending trends.
• HGX (Philadelphia Housing Sector Index): An index tracking performance of housing-related stocks including home builders and commodity producers.
• Implied Volatility Dispersion Trade: A market strategy involving options, exploiting differences in volatility between an index and its individual components.
• Correlation Index: An indicator measuring how closely individual stocks move together, used for gauging market risk and sentiment.
Please remember to leave questions in the comments. I’ll be back later. Bye.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEuNHQwbl9Fd2ZYaFk
9:07
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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11:40
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Please check out my content on Substack and Seeking Alpha:
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https://seekingalpha.com/affiliate_link/Youtube81624
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEuUVlXRnZlYUVEQUE
SNAP
Snap reports tonight, and the stock is nearing a potential break out. Should it rise above $7.30, it could go on to advance to around $9.

Skyworks (SWKS)
Skyworks broke out already and appears to be heading back towards $81.30

AMD
AMD’s run may be over with the stock falling below support at $24 and potentially on its way back to $21.

GM
GM has a bearish rising wedge pattern forming, and I am looking for a decline towards $35.

See you tonight!
-Mike
Photo From Flickr
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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