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JANUARY 29, 2020
Stocks: AAPL, TSLA, GE, AMD, SHOP
Macro:Â SPY, FOMC
Markets globally are rebounding today in Asia and Europe, as it appears investor’s nerves are settling.
The Fed will have its announcement on monetary policy today at 2 PM, with no changes expected.
S&P (SPY)
Stocks are rising this morning in the US with the S&P 500 futures up 24 basis points and rising to about 3,290. The futures now need to get back above 3296 to clear the gap and push higher once again.
AMD (AMD)
AMD is trading lower today, and I am surprised. The company gave better than expected full-year guidance. Still, revenue guidance for the first quarter was light, but, by about $60 million, on $1.8 billion quarter, it seems insignificant to me. The only thing I can think of is that Intel’s results kind of spoiled the party for AMD, or with the stocks big move higher in recent months, expectations were high.
AMD is one of the strangest stock when it comes to earnings, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see this stock trade higher by days end. I have seen it happen before. The stock is holding on to $48.50, which has been support. Let’s see where it is at 4 pm before we chalk off as a loss.
Apple (AAPL)
I wrote up an article on Apple for Forbes last night, and I thought the quarter was stunning. Even with the big stocks run-up, the results amazed me. Service and Wearables continue to be the growth engine of this business, accounting for nearly 25% of total revenue, which continues to climb. I think that the two business units continue to make Apple a more valuable company. Analysts are going to be forced to take up earnings estimates for the company, and that is going to help to push shares even higher. Apple’s Stunning Results Suggest The Stock Is Still Too Cheap
The stock is getting a number of price target increases today
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla will report results tonight, and I have no idea what will happen. Surprisingly the options market’s pricing is in just an 11.3% move in the stock using the long straddle options strategy for expiration on January 31 from the $570 strike price. It would place the stock in a range of $507 to $623.
GE (GE)
GE is rising after reporting better than expected earnings and revenue this morning. Resistance comes around $12.35, with the potential for an increase to $13.30. Remember we saw options trader betting ahead of results the stock would rise to $13.30. So here we go Why GE’s Stock May Surge Following Its Quarterly Results
Shopify (SHOP)
Be careful with Shop, the stock rebounded some yesterday, and successfully refilled the gap, and until it gets above resistance at $477, I’d consider any rally suspect. I still think the stock heads back to $420.
Take care
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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