This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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JANUARY 29, 2020
Stocks: AAPL, TSLA, GE, AMD, SHOP
Macro: SPY, FOMC
Markets globally are rebounding today in Asia and Europe, as it appears investor’s nerves are settling.
The Fed will have its announcement on monetary policy today at 2 PM, with no changes expected.
Stocks are rising this morning in the US with the S&P 500 futures up 24 basis points and rising to about 3,290. The futures now need to get back above 3296 to clear the gap and push higher once again.
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AMD is trading lower today, and I am surprised. The company gave better than expected full-year guidance. Still, revenue guidance for the first quarter was light, but, by about $60 million, on $1.8 billion quarter, it seems insignificant to me. The only thing I can think of is that Intel’s results kind of spoiled the party for AMD, or with the stocks big move higher in recent months, expectations were high.
AMD is one of the strangest stock when it comes to earnings, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see this stock trade higher by days end. I have seen it happen before. The stock is holding on to $48.50, which has been support. Let’s see where it is at 4 pm before we chalk off as a loss.
I wrote up an article on Apple for Forbes last night, and I thought the quarter was stunning. Even with the big stocks run-up, the results amazed me. Service and Wearables continue to be the growth engine of this business, accounting for nearly 25% of total revenue, which continues to climb. I think that the two business units continue to make Apple a more valuable company. Analysts are going to be forced to take up earnings estimates for the company, and that is going to help to push shares even higher. Apple’s Stunning Results Suggest The Stock Is Still Too Cheap
Tesla will report results tonight, and I have no idea what will happen. Surprisingly the options market’s pricing is in just an 11.3% move in the stock using the long straddle options strategy for expiration on January 31 from the $570 strike price. It would place the stock in a range of $507 to $623.
GE is rising after reporting better than expected earnings and revenue this morning. Resistance comes around $12.35, with the potential for an increase to $13.30. Remember we saw options trader betting ahead of results the stock would rise to $13.30. So here we go Why GE’s Stock May Surge Following Its Quarterly Results
Be careful with Shop, the stock rebounded some yesterday, and successfully refilled the gap, and until it gets above resistance at $477, I’d consider any rally suspect. I still think the stock heads back to $420.
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