This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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January 16, 2020
Stocks: NFLX, TSLA, TSM, MU, SNAP
Macro: SPY
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Captial own NFLX and TSLA
S&P 500 (SPY)
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The S&P 500 is rising this morning with the S&P 500 futures pointing to an 11 point gain or roughly 31 basis points. Interestingly, I started to track a rising wedge in the S&P 500 futures, and today for the first time, I found the same pattern in the S&P 500 cash.
Now the time frame is essential because it is an hourly chart, which would suggest just a short-term pullback. But it could be pointing to a pullback of about 1.5 to 2.5%.
I will continue to monitor this closely. This will also be something I will review closely tonight’s streaming event. You Can Join Us By Sign-Up For Your Free 2-Week Trial on Seeking Alpha or StockTwits
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Taiwan Semi (TSM)
Taiwan Semi is rising after reporting fourth quarter earnings that came in ahead of estimates, with revenue that was weaker than expected. Based on the slides from the presentation, it would appear that guidance for revenue in the first quarter came in well ahead of estimates at $10.25 billion at the mid-point, versus estimates of $9.75 billion. The stock has a level of resistance around $60.75, but overall the trends remain bullish with the potential to rise to around $64.85.
SNAP (SNAP)
SNAP is trading lower today on reports the CEO sold 2.78 million shares at $18. The stock has stalled out at resistance around $18.40.
Micron (MU)
Mizuho raised its price target on Micron today to $65 from $61. The stock held on to support around $55.60 nicely, with a chance for it to test resistance around $58.66.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla was downgraded to underweight at Morgan Stanley while raising its price target to $360 from $250. The stock could fall back to around $472, where it should find a level of support.
Netflix (NFLX)
BMO noted that Netflix might see upside domestic performance and guidance for the fiscal year 2021. Also, Credit Suisse stated it sees a modest 4Q beat. Cowen also sees the company hitting or exceeding subscription guidance. It may not matter, because the stock can’t go beyond $340 anyway. I’m somewhat sarcastic here; I’m frustrated by the price action recently.
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