This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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February 4, 2020
Stocks: TSLA, GOOGL, MU, INTC
Macro: SPY, EWY
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own GOOGL and TSLA in the Thematic Growth Portfolio
S&P 500 (SPY)
The good news is that stocks are rising this morning, and are rising above the downtrend that was noted yesterday based on the S&P 500 future. It means that the index’s next significant level of resistance comes around 3,296.
The rally isn’t just here in the US, with markets globally rallying. South Korea has seen as significant snap back rally in recent days.
Perhaps it is because of the better manufacturing data here in the US, or maybe it on hopes of more China Stimulus. It seems like some of that fear trade we were seeing are certainly easing.
Tesla shares are rising yet again. I remember when Tesla went from $35 to $200. I remember it very well because the place I was working for at the time was buying the stock as it was rising, and I was trying to buy it at the time for them. It prompts me to compare that experience to today’s recent rise. The jump then based on the premise that Tesla was going from a concept to a company that was selling its products. I think what you are seeing here today is something similar, as the company enters its next significant leg of growth.
The chart below shows that just becuse the stock is having a big run higher, doesn’t mean it has to come back down. In fact, if history repeats itself the stock is likely to stablize in the not to distant future.
Remember, two more quarters of earnings, and this is a stock that can very well enter the S&P 500. Don’t think investors aren’t thinking about that, and all the index funds that will need to get in.
Not only that, but if these earnings and revenue estiamtes turn out to be true, you could argue that the stock is even cheap trading at 38 times 2022 earnings estimates of $24 per share.
(Data from Ycharts)
Alphabet is falling after results, but there was nothing not to like about the results, other than the fact that stock had a big move higher over the last month. A break of support around $1430 sends the stock lower to $1380. Here is an article I wrote for Forbes – Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Drop Appears To Be An Overreaction
Micron stock is rising today and is approaching resistance at $55.65, and rise above that price pushes shares back to $58.66.
Intel is rising again today, and remember we were seeing bullish options betting. Premium content – Intel Buyers Back?
Have a good one
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