This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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August 16 – Stock mentions: SPY, NVDA, AAPL, AMD, MU, AMZN
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own AAPL
- S&P 500 Futures +26 points
- US 10-Year 1.55%
- Dollar Index 98.27
- Oil $54.80
- VIX 19.84
- Shanghai +0.29%
- HSI +0.94%
- KOSPI -0.58%
- Nikkei +0.06%
- FTSE +0.60%
- DAX +1.02%
Yes, Stocks Can Go Up
So at least for the moment stocks are pointing to a higher opening on August 16. I’m supposed to be on vacation with my family next week, and I don’t think it is too much to ask from the stock market gods to have a week of tranquility. I would like not to worry about the market until at least next Friday.
Anyway, rates have stabilized for the moment, and when you read headlines like “ECB Has Big Bazooka Primed for September, Top Official Says” you can understand why rates around the globe have been on the decline.
Then when you read statements like this from the FOMC: “In particular, beginning in August 2019, principal payments received from agency debt and agency MBS up to $20 billion per month will be reinvested in Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in agency MBS. Also beginning in August, all maturing Treasury securities in the SOMA portfolio will be rolled over at Treasury auctions following usual practices.”
Again, a good reason for the recent declines in yields. Then factor in central banks around the globe, like Mexico yesterday cutting rates, it also serves as the reason for yields to fall. Maybe my thinking it is too simplistic, What do I know, I am just a mere simpleton. Perhaps it is the dollar shortage, or funds short gamma on bonds, or funds short vol, or something I have never heard of pushing rates lower. But sometimes the most obvious reason is right in front of you. I have found over time, that in the world of investing, people like to make things seem more complicated than they are. Whatever…
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 is rising on August 16, and for now, we can think about resistance as 2872 and then around 2895, and 2915.
Nvidia is rising today to around $160 where there is minor resistance, with the next significant level to look for at about $171.
AMD is rising in sympathy with Nvidia, with a level of resistance of $31.40.
Apple found some support around the $200 region, and $209 is once again resistance.
AMZN continues to hold on to support around $1770. That is a big-time positive. It leaves open the chance for that rebound towards $1890.
Micron is holding support around $42, and that could set up a retest of $44.
Have a good one.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.