This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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September 5 – Stock mentions SPY, NFLX, AMZN, TWTR, NVDA, NXPI
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own NXPI and NFLX
For anyone that is interested, I will be a speaker at this years Stocktoberfest West at the end of September.
Stocks had a dominant day with the break out now complete. The S&P 500 surged by over 1.3% and managed to advance above resistance today at 2975. But the key here is 2975 held as support all day long after the breakout, no typical, algo driven gap fill. That is very important and could suggest that 3,000 is around the corner. The most significant risk as always is the potential for the gap fill and retest of what is now support at 2935.
Tomorrow could prove as an opportunity to provide that retest for the newfound support level at 2935. We have the August jobs report at 8:30, followed by Fed Chair Powell speaking at 12:30.
So here is the chart, and you can support at 2975 and the gap down to 2935. I show you it in a video from today, if you want to visual see it: The Trend For Stocks Has Turn Higher
The sign of relief came today when the US10year rose above 1.54%. Additionally, the downtrend is broken. I think this sets up the move higher now to 1.75%; we have been looking for to come.
The German 10-year had a big move higher today too, rising above -60bps, a big deal in my book. It signals that rates in Germany could be heading up to -40bps.
One stock that didn’t have a good day was Netflix. There was a rumored report out NFLX was running light on international subscribers net adds for the third quarter. I don’t know how they collect the data and never heard of the firm that issued the data. When I checked Alexa.com to see how the website was ranking, it moved from 24 to 21, which is a big move. Alexa works by ranking website against one another. The higher the rank, the harder it is to move up. For example, Reddit is 19, and VK.com is 20. It doesn’t suggest weakness to me. Nor does Google Trends. I’m sure there will be plenty more reports to come.
Anyway, the good news is that the stock recouped all of its losses and finished higher. The pattern remains unchanged.
Twitter had a very good day rising by over 4.5%, to $45.31. Those options guys did it again. I wrote an article on Friday for my premium subscribers Why Twitter’s Stock May Jump Over $45, in case you’re interested. First two weeks free. Read it; if you like it, stay. If not cancel, I won’t bother you. The link takes you to the page for My Seeking Alpha marketplace service.
NXP Semiconductor is once again testing resistance at $106. I mean you have to think this time it finally breaks out? Maybe 115.50, finally?!
Amazon finally broke out, and now we can think about $1900 again.
Nvidia broke out today, I noted it in this free article, along with some bullish betting, sets up a move around $198. Nvidia’s Rally May Only Be Starting
– Until tomorrow!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.