This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 2,381 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital Management own Netflix and Apple
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks continued to rise with the S&P 500 up another 30 basis points today. It felt a lot like a consolidation day with a lot of sideways trading action once we got past the initial rise. We are now less than 50 points from 2,800, less than 2% below our target. While it has been an uphill battle, that came with a lot of criticism along the way, I am happy it has worked as well it has for all of us.
Maybe I got lucky when I wrote 4 Signs That Suggest The Stock Market Has Finally Bottomed on December 29, or on January 17 when I first mentioned the words S&P 500 and 2,800 in the same sentence. But I think sometimes it is good to reflect on things you have gotten right.
The one thing I have also learned as my readership has grown is that the only thing worse than losing money is your reputation.
If we hit 2,800, great, if we don’t, then we don’t. I won’t be disappointed, and I don’t think many of you will be either. Just look at how far the market has come, and to miss a target by less than 2% is a rounding error in my opinion, should we even miss it for some reason.
Besides, I don’t know of many other people that were looking for this monster rally at any point over of the past few weeks or had the conviction it would last this long.
So we continue forward…
Netflix dropped today, and a subscriber on my StockTwits board pointed out that the stock was fine until the announcement of Apple’s streaming service and how Netflix would not be a part of it. So they may not be a part of it –who cares! Netflix doesn’t need to be part of it. They have 140 million subscribers. If people want to watch Netflix, trust me they are going to find it. There is no reason Netflix should have to pay Apple to be part of this new service.
I own both stocks, in this case I’m siding with Netflix. It is no different from how Netflix pays Roku, which is nothing. To me this is a non-event.
Should Apple remove the Netflix app from their phones, then that is a different story. I am sorry, but if I had to choose between a phone and Netflix, I’d select Netflix every day of the week.
But what it is becoming clear to me is that Netflix can’t get above $360 and that is starting to make me nervous. I did write a bullish piece today on the stock. Here it is for free. The Bulls May Be Rushing Back Into Netflix
Apple, however, appears to be consolidating and getting ready to rise to $182.
Micron is also nearing a big break out and it could be on its way to $45. Here is an article I wrote in my premium area. Micron Breakout On The Horizon
The banks somehow made it past the danger zone at the downtrend. The chart is starting to look like one of the most bullish flag patterns I have seen in some time. That means a run in the BKX to 103 looks likely. Maybe this is the group that takes the market on its next leg higher.
Just $25 Per Month:
Get 25% off your First Month with code RTM1: For more trading style commentaries like the one below with charting check out my premium room on StockTwits.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.