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#STOCKS – $META
#MACRO – $SPY
- RTM: Inflation Data May Run Hotter Than Expected
- RTM: AMD MORE BEARISH OPTIONS BETS
- RTM: INFLECTION POINT VIDEO
- RTM: Inflection Point For Stocks, Bonds, And The Dollar Arrive
- RTM: Cisco’s Stock May Drop Following Quarterly Results
- RTM: Stocks Rise As China Fears Rise
- RTM: TLT May Head Sharply Lower As Rates Surge Towards 5%
- RTM- Replay Live ZOOM 10.21.22
Stocks finished the day lower despite falling rates and a weaker dollar. Earnings were the primary driver. Strange to write that. Macro forces have dictated the market for so long that sometimes you can forget that the market can move on fundamentals.
Tomorrow we have the ECB, GDP, and inflation data. I tend to think that the inflation readings, like the GDP price index, will be hotter than expected, while the ECB is likely to be non-committal to future rate hikes.
Many people I read seem to think that the dollar and rates have peaked. I tend to believe that it isn’t that easy. While I acknowledge that nothing goes up in a straight line, I do not think they have peaked, based on inflation rates and the amount of monetary tightening that may be needed.
If GDP comes in as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts of 3.1%, then a lot of recession chatter will need to go away. Even the latest ISM data, while down in October, suggests healthy GDP growth rates. The economy is growing slower, but it seems far from the Fed’s target of below-trend growth.
I also think PCE data will come in hotter than expected on Friday.
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Anyway, the S&P 500 gapped lower today, then rose sharply and finished lower. There is what looks to be a pretty ugly reversal candle today.
Ultimately, this entire pattern in the S&P 500 is unstable, with a massive rally. There also appears to be a diamond reversal pattern on the hourly chart. When these work correctly, in my experience, they return to the origin of the rally, and usually even undercut the low. That was what happened the last time in September.
Meta continues to drop, as it has now fallen below support at $114. I guess after $108; the stock could get to $90. In terms of the business, I haven’t liked Meta and never ever have.
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance LP. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Past performance of an index is not an indication or guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index may be available through investable instruments based on that index. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.